Statistics and spatial analytics for the present day
Even though only my extreme partisanship completely explains why, I greatly enjoyed the first live footy match I watched in 2019. Most neutrals – if they were watching at all – had turned off the North Melbourne-Carlton game after watching the Kangas kick the opening seven goals to lead 10.6.66 to 1.7.13 at halftime. We …
Continue reading “AFL: When has a team definitively won the game?”
I’m excited about the article you’re currently reading in part because I get to advertise a couple new developments in footy statistics. First is The Arc AFL’s complete AFL history. Using ELO (which admittedly isn’t my favourite way to determine winners and losers, but it serves its purpose well here) you can easily determine the …
Continue reading “AFL: 1990 and 1999 grand final in-game winning percentages”
Recently I put my AFL leverage simulator through its paces, generating both winning percentages and leverage for the entire 2019 season. The leverage simulator simulates the remainder of each AFL game from any given minute to determine how often a team wins from that point. More importantly, it also determines the game’s leverage, or how …
Continue reading “AFL: The most important goals of 2019, ranked by math”
As I sat with my friend in the second deck of Dodger Stadium on September 4, 2017, we began to contemplate the impossible. Heading into the bottom of the sixth inning, Robbie Ray had retired the first 15 batters he faced without allowing a baserunner. The Diamondbacks were up 2-0, J.D. Martinez having hit a …