AFL: Using leverage as a proxy for excitement

The historically boring 2019 grand final and the analytical press demonstrating most grand finals historically haven’t been the most exciting games led me to wonder if games could be ranked based on how exciting they were. The last few minutes of a close game are one of the many appeals of Aussie rules. In terms …

MLB: The art of expected bases

I don’t quite remember which player statistics the Hillsboro Hops had up on their right field scoreboard during the Northwest League minor league game. One for sure was batting average, and one for sure was OPS. OPS, of course, stands for On-base Plus Slugging, or, put mildly, the sum of a player’s on-base percentage (how …

AFL: It’s only a 50-50 game in the last couple minutes if it’s tied

While bathed in controversy, the GWS-Collingwood 2019 preliminary final was a clear case of “next goal wins.” The Pies had the last nine scoring shots, kicking 4.5 to 0.0 after the 5:30 mark of the 4th quarter. From 27:57 to the sound of the siren at 34:57, GWS held a 4-point lead. Even with Collingwood’s …