64-Team World Cup Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
Belgium 1856
France 1790
England 1752
Spain 1740
Brazil 1722
Argentina 1702
Italy 1701
Colombia 1697
Switzerland 1686
Germany 1678
Uruguay 1667
Portugal 1660
Netherlands 1652
Denmark 1646
USA 1640
Wales 1605
Pot 2 & ranking points
Sweden 1597
Iran 1588
Senegal 1560
Poland 1560
Morocco 1542
Japan 1541
Tunisia 1540
Serbia 1536
Chile 1526
Paraguay 1526
Czech Republic 1521
Korea Rep. 1521
Algeria 1519
Turkey 1517
Austria 1516
Peru 1508
Pot 3 & ranking points
Canada 1497
Russia 1492
Egypt 1486
Australia 1485
Romania 1483
Qatar 1474
Rep. of Ireland 1464
Costa Rica 1459
Ecuador 1457
Slovenia 1449
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1448
Côte d'Ivoire 1442
Greece 1440
Cameroon 1438
Mali 1425
Panama 1414
Pot 4 & ranking points
Burkina Faso 1407
El Salvador 1389
Congo DR 1386
Honduras 1374
UAE 1370
China PR 1362
Guinea 1343
Oman 1339
Iraq 1334
Jordan 1306
Gabon 1282
Kyrgyz Republic 1272
Trinidad & Tobago 1270
Lebanon 1257
Antigua & Barbuda 1195
New Zealand 1179
Pot 1 & ranking points
Belgium 1870
France 1804
England 1768
Spain 1758
Brazil 1717
Italy 1711
Switzerland 1708
Colombia 1706
Pot 2 & ranking points
Germany 1698
Netherlands 1676
Denmark 1669
Uruguay 1664
USA 1663
Iran 1598
Poland 1567
Morocco 1527
Pot 3 & ranking points
Chile 1522
Russia 1506
Canada 1500
Australia 1498
Egypt 1486
Côte d'Ivoire 1485
Qatar 1476
Rep. of Ireland 1467
Pot 4 & ranking points
Slovenia 1466
Greece 1456
Panama 1433
Mali 1430
Burkina Faso 1416
UAE 1382
China PR 1375
Kyrgyz Republic 1302
Uruguay def.
Morocco
France def.
Poland
Australia def.
Iran
Colombia def.
Chile
Belgium def.
Switzerland
Italy def.
Germany
Spain def.
Côte d'Ivoire
Netherlands def.
Denmark
Uruguay def.
France
Colombia def.
Australia
Italy def.
Belgium
Netherlands def.
Spain
Colombia def.
Uruguay
Italy def.
Netherlands
Colombia def.
Italy
This simulates a potential 64-team World Cup, which I developed because the 2026 World Cup format is so terrible. It assumes the World Cup could be expanded by having a winter-summer competition with the first competition being a round of 64 where the top two teams in each group advance to the second round. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and can change between the seeding of the first and second rounds. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is impossible (most common 17+ UEFA teams qualify for round two), in which case it will ignore continental restrictions (only really a problem for the second round.)
The first round features the following number of teams: 12 CAF (Africa), 12 AFC (Asia), 8 CONCACAF (North America), 7 CONMEBOL (South America), 1 OFC (Oceania), 22 UEFA (Europe), and two play-off winners. Qualifying rounds were designed to evenly distribute teams into group stages which look as similar as possible to the current setup - the biggest place this varies is in North America. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent.
The preliminary round features the highest ranked unqualified team in each continental region, except for South America (8th placed) and Oceania (runner up). These matches are then drawn randomly with two teams receiving a bye.
Simulate Again!
Qualifying Rounds
1 Bosnia & Herzegovina 192 Poland 193 Croatia 144 North Macedonia 45 Moldova 1
1 Germany 222 Austria 163 Estonia 104 Slovakia 95 Liechtenstein 0
1 Wales 182 Portugal 173 Albania 104 Montenegro 85 Latvia 1
1 Switzerland 242 Rep. of Ireland 163 Luxembourg 124 Ukraine 75 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 172 Sweden 163 Finland 114 Lithuania 85 Cyprus 3
1 Belgium 242 Russia 133 Norway 134 Bulgaria 95 Malta 0
1 France 212 Greece 143 Georgia 124 Hungary 85 Andorra 1
1 Slovenia 212 England 193 Scotland 104 Kazakhstan 65 Israel 3
1 Turkey 182 Italy 143 Northern Ireland 124 Belarus 75 Azerbaijan 3
1 Romania 172 Serbia 143 Denmark 144 Armenia 105 Gibraltar 1
1 Spain 242 Czech Republic 163 Iceland 104 Faroe Islands 55 Kosovo 2
1 New Caledonia 102 New Zealand 73 Vanuatu 64 Papua New Guinea 45 Tonga 1
1 Fiji 82 Tahiti 83 Samoa 74 Solomon Islands 35 American Samoa 1
1 Colombia 412 Uruguay 383 Paraguay 294 Argentina 285 Brazil 246 Chile 217 Peru 208 Ecuador 189 Bolivia 1610 Venezuela 12
1 Canada 392 Honduras 353 St. Kitts and Nevis 214 Guatemala 185 Grenada 146 Montserrat 137 Turks & Caicos Isl. 128 Guyana 8
1 USA 362 Panama 343 Nicaragua 214 Dominican Republic 215 Haiti 196 St. Lucia 127 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 118 Cayman Islands 8
1 El Salvador 342 Antigua & Barbuda 303 Mexico 294 Curaçao 285 Bermuda 146 Puerto Rico 117 Cuba 98 Anguilla 7
1 Costa Rica 352 Trinidad & Tobago 333 Jamaica 294 Suriname 235 Barbados 156 Belize 137 Dominica 88 Aruba 5
1 Côte d'Ivoire 152 Sierra Leone 93 Tanzania 74 South Africa 4
1 Guinea 162 Ghana 103 Angola 64 South Sudan 1
1 Senegal 152 Mozambique 103 Guinea-Bissau 64 Lesotho 4
1 Cameroon 132 Madagascar 73 Liberia 64 Equatorial Guinea 5
1 Congo DR 132 Uganda 83 Zimbabwe 74 Gambia 5
1 Algeria 152 Congo 103 Burundi 54 Namibia 3
1 Burkina Faso 132 Cabo Verde 83 Central African Republic 64 Rwanda 5
1 Mali 122 Togo 93 Benin 64 Somalia 4
1 Egypt 182 Zambia 103 Niger 64 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Gabon 112 Nigeria 103 Comoros 104 Sudan 3
1 Morocco 162 Kenya 83 Libya 74 Eswatini 2
1 Tunisia 182 Mauritania 73 Ethiopia 74 Malawi 2
1 Australia 242 Kyrgyz Republic 223 Thailand 174 Uzbekistan 135 Maldives 126 Guam 0
1 Jordan 232 China PR 213 Saudi Arabia 194 Tajikistan 105 Hong Kong 76 Brunei 6
1 Qatar 262 UAE 223 Bahrain 144 Philippines 135 Timor-Leste 76 Malaysia 3
1 Iran 282 Oman 223 India 184 Vietnam 105 Kuwait 76 Mongolia 3
1 Japan 242 Iraq 173 Turkmenistan 144 Singapore 115 Palestine 96 Nepal 5
1 Korea Rep. 252 Lebanon 193 Korea DPR 164 Syria 135 Afghanistan 137 Macau 0
OFC Final
New Zealand def.
Tahiti
Intercontinental Playoffs
Denmark def.
Saudi Arabia
Ecuador def.
Tahiti
Denmark def.
Nigeria
Ecuador def.
Mexico