64-Team World Cup Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Brazil 1867

Belgium 1857

Argentina 1770

France 1767

England 1763

Italy 1748

Colombia 1712

Spain 1696

Portugal 1677

Denmark 1677

Switzerland 1675

Mexico 1655

Netherlands 1654

USA 1649

Croatia 1633

Germany 1612
Pot 2 & ranking points

Sweden 1606

Iran 1600

Senegal 1589

Wales 1580

Uruguay 1568

Ukraine 1563

Czech Republic 1559

Morocco 1555

Serbia 1548

Japan 1542

Chile 1539

Russia 1529

Poland 1528

Turkey 1528

Australia 1525

Algeria 1510
Pot 3 & ranking points

Tunisia 1505

Peru 1499

Korea Rep. 1498

Jamaica 1474

Qatar 1469

Norway 1467

Canada 1466

Nigeria 1458

Hungary 1457

Costa Rica 1452

Egypt 1450

Paraguay 1447

Mali 1444

Ghana 1442

Panama 1427

Cameroon 1426
Pot 4 & ranking points

Saudi Arabia 1420

Albania 1418

Congo DR 1417

UAE 1406

Burkina Faso 1402

El Salvador 1395

Honduras 1366

Haiti 1321

Syria 1315

Gabon 1268

Vietnam 1267

Palestine 1254

India 1187

Thailand 1162

Myanmar 1123

Fiji 1017
Pot 1 & ranking points

Belgium 1871

Brazil 1854

Argentina 1784

France 1773

England 1769

Italy 1767

Denmark 1701

Spain 1701
Pot 2 & ranking points

Portugal 1677

Netherlands 1651

USA 1648

Croatia 1643

Mexico 1641

Germany 1626

Sweden 1624

Czech Republic 1579
Pot 3 & ranking points

Ukraine 1567

Japan 1553

Morocco 1550

Russia 1541

Australia 1531

Poland 1527

Tunisia 1519

Algeria 1518
Pot 4 & ranking points

Canada 1491

Egypt 1490

Costa Rica 1482

Qatar 1476

Hungary 1460

Paraguay 1457

Mali 1453

Saudi Arabia 1430

Denmark def.

Sweden

Netherlands def.

France

Russia def.

Belgium

Portugal def.

Spain

Germany def.

Italy

Croatia def.

Argentina

Brazil def.

Ukraine

Paraguay def.

England

Denmark def.

Netherlands

Portugal def.

Russia

Croatia def.

Germany

Brazil def.

Paraguay

Portugal def.

Denmark

Croatia def.

Brazil

Croatia def.

Portugal
This simulates a potential 64-team World Cup, which I developed because the 2026 World Cup format is so terrible. It assumes the World Cup could be expanded by having a winter-summer competition with the first competition being a round of 64 where the top two teams in each group advance to the second round. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and can change between the seeding of the first and second rounds. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is impossible (most common 17+ UEFA teams qualify for round two), in which case it will ignore continental restrictions (only really a problem for the second round.)
The first round features the following number of teams: 12 CAF (Africa), 12 AFC (Asia), 8 CONCACAF (North America), 7 CONMEBOL (South America), 1 OFC (Oceania), 22 UEFA (Europe), and two play-off winners. Qualifying rounds were designed to evenly distribute teams into group stages which look as similar as possible to the current setup - the biggest place this varies is in North America. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent.
The preliminary round features the highest ranked unqualified team in each continental region, except for South America (8th placed) and Oceania (runner up). These matches are then drawn randomly with two teams receiving a bye.
Simulate Again!
Qualifying Rounds
1 Spain 182 Norway 143 Scotland 124 Montenegro 105 Moldova 2
1 Turkey 202 Germany 123 Finland 114 Azerbaijan 75 Bulgaria 5
1 England 202 Russia 193 Northern Ireland 124 Andorra 45 Estonia 3
1 Belgium 242 Sweden 183 Slovakia 124 Georgia 65 Liechtenstein 0
1 Denmark 212 Poland 153 Romania 94 Belarus 95 Faroe Islands 6
1 Portugal 212 Ukraine 193 Kosovo 114 Iceland 45 Lithuania 3
1 Czech Republic 212 France 183 Greece 104 Armenia 75 Malta 3
1 Netherlands 172 Wales 163 Slovenia 134 Israel 105 Kazakhstan 1
1 Croatia 182 Serbia 163 Bosnia & Herzegovina 144 Latvia 45 Cyprus 2
1 Switzerland 222 Hungary 133 Rep. of Ireland 114 North Macedonia 105 San Marino 1
1 Italy 202 Albania 173 Austria 124 Luxembourg 75 Gibraltar 0
1 Solomon Islands 82 Fiji 53 Samoa 54 American Samoa 55 New Caledonia 2
1 Papua New Guinea 72 Tonga 73 New Zealand 64 Tahiti 45 Vanuatu 2
1 Brazil 462 Colombia 443 Argentina 404 Chile 245 Uruguay 236 Paraguay 187 Peru 188 Bolivia 159 Ecuador 1410 Venezuela 13
1 USA 372 Haiti 323 El Salvador 324 Antigua & Barbuda 205 Belize 156 Barbados 117 St. Lucia 88 Cayman Islands 6
1 Mexico 392 Panama 353 Curaçao 324 St. Kitts and Nevis 165 Montserrat 116 Dominican Republic 107 US Virgin Isl. 108 Puerto Rico 6
1 Costa Rica 352 Honduras 343 Trinidad & Tobago 284 Nicaragua 225 Dominica 156 Grenada 147 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 78 British Virgin Isl. 5
1 Jamaica 402 Canada 343 Bermuda 224 Suriname 175 Guatemala 146 Guyana 107 Aruba 98 Cuba 8
1 Nigeria 112 Mauritania 93 South Sudan 54 Togo 5
1 Burkina Faso 132 Zambia 123 Eswatini 74 Central African Republic 3
1 Morocco 182 Kenya 83 Rwanda 64 Equatorial Guinea 1
1 Congo DR 182 Congo 83 Sierra Leone 34 Botswana 3
1 Ghana 142 Angola 93 South Africa 84 Djibouti 1
1 Mali 152 Liberia 103 Benin 74 Libya 2
1 Senegal 182 Ethiopia 73 Uganda 74 Niger 2
1 Tunisia 132 Guinea-Bissau 103 Mozambique 84 Tanzania 3
1 Gabon 102 Comoros 73 Zimbabwe 74 Côte d'Ivoire 6
1 Algeria 132 Guinea 93 Burundi 74 Namibia 6
1 Egypt 132 Madagascar 73 Sudan 64 Lesotho 5
1 Cameroon 122 Cabo Verde 123 Mauritius 74 Malawi 4
1 UAE 262 Japan 253 Kyrgyz Republic 164 Kuwait 125 Tajikistan 56 Pakistan 1
1 Iran 302 India 143 Oman 144 Lebanon 135 Malaysia 116 Nepal 3
1 Syria 222 Palestine 223 Saudi Arabia 184 Hong Kong 125 Turkmenistan 96 Mongolia 0
1 Vietnam 212 Korea Rep. 213 China PR 204 Singapore 95 Philippines 76 Yemen 4
1 Qatar 242 Myanmar 193 Iraq 164 Korea DPR 135 Bahrain 96 Chinese Taipei 2
1 Australia 282 Thailand 133 Afghanistan 124 Jordan 125 Uzbekistan 126 Cambodia 6
OFC Final

Fiji def.

Tonga
Intercontinental Playoffs

Côte d'Ivoire def.

Bolivia

Austria def.

Tonga

Saudi Arabia def.

Côte d'Ivoire

El Salvador def.

Austria