2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Mexico 1650

USA 1625

Canada 1521

France 1892

Spain 1879

Argentina 1862

England 1821

Netherlands 1788

Portugal 1769

Belgium 1759

Brazil 1758

Uruguay 1727
Pot 2 & ranking points

Morocco 1702

Colombia 1686

Croatia 1680

Japan 1674

Senegal 1655

Austria 1633

Denmark 1631

Iran 1623

Ukraine 1585

Korea Rep. 1583

Hungary 1582

Ecuador 1559
Pot 3 & ranking points

Sweden 1558

Australia 1558

Türkiye 1556

Egypt 1556

Poland 1550

Panama 1547

Norway 1528

Costa Rica 1518

Cameroon 1507

Slovakia 1505

Algeria 1497

Côte d'Ivoire 1461
Pot 4 & ranking points

Iraq 1450

Uzbekistan 1440

Paraguay 1436

Jamaica 1436

UAE 1408

South Africa 1402

Jordan 1396

Bolivia 1365

Oman 1335

Ghana 1300

New Zealand 1259

Namibia 1209

England def.

Namibia

Portugal def.

Colombia

Denmark def.

Ukraine

Senegal def.

Australia

Morocco def.

Côte d'Ivoire

Japan def.

Poland

France def.

Sweden

Netherlands def.

New Zealand

Brazil def.

Iran

Norway def.

Mexico

Argentina def.

Paraguay

Croatia def.

Korea Rep.

UAE def.

Hungary

Spain def.

Cameroon

Uruguay def.

Algeria

Türkiye def.

Slovakia

Portugal def.

England

Denmark def.

Senegal

Japan def.

Morocco

France def.

Netherlands

Brazil def.

Norway

Croatia def.

Argentina

Spain def.

UAE

Türkiye def.

Uruguay

Portugal def.

Denmark

France def.

Japan

Brazil def.

Croatia

Türkiye def.

Spain

France def.

Portugal

Brazil def.

Türkiye

France def.

Brazil
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025
Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.
European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.
Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 202 Czechia 173 Faroe Islands 104 Montenegro 105 Gibraltar 0
1 England 242 Albania 163 Serbia 134 Andorra 35 Latvia 3
1 Slovakia 122 Luxembourg 103 Germany 94 Northern Ireland 2
1 Norway 202 Italy 183 Israel 84 Estonia 55 Moldova 3
1 Austria 242 Bosnia & Herzegovina 153 Cyprus 124 Romania 95 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 242 Poland 183 Finland 104 Lithuania 45 Malta 3
1 Hungary 162 Portugal 133 Rep. of Ireland 44 Armenia 1
1 Spain 182 Türkiye 103 Georgia 74 Bulgaria 0
1 France 162 Ukraine 113 Iceland 74 Azerbaijan 0
1 Denmark 152 Greece 133 Scotland 54 Belarus 1
1 Sweden 132 Switzerland 133 Slovenia 94 Kosovo 0
1 Belgium 222 Wales 123 North Macedonia 124 Kazakhstan 85 Liechtenstein 1
1 Argentina 382 Uruguay 363 Brazil 304 Ecuador 295 Colombia 256 Paraguay 247 Bolivia 238 Venezuela 189 Peru 1410 Chile 10
1 Puerto Rico 82 El Salvador 83 Suriname 84 St Vincent & the Grenadines 15 Anguilla 1
1 Guatemala 122 Jamaica 93 Dominican Republic 64 Dominica 15 British Virgin Isl. 1
1 Panama 122 Nicaragua 93 Montserrat 64 Guyana 35 Belize 0
1 Curaçao 122 Haiti 93 Aruba 44 Barbados 35 St Lucia 1
1 Costa Rica 122 Grenada 73 Trinidad & Tobago 54 St Kitts & Nevis 45 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 122 Cayman Islands 63 Cuba 54 Antigua & Barbuda 25 Bermuda 2
1 Comoros 222 Ghana 223 Madagascar 174 Mali 165 Central African Republic 56 Chad 3
1 Namibia 242 Tunisia 233 Equatorial Guinea 154 Liberia 115 Malawi 106 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Algeria 252 Mozambique 183 Guinea 154 Uganda 145 Botswana 116 Somalia 1
1 Côte d'Ivoire 242 Gabon 223 Burundi 154 Kenya 115 Gambia 106 Seychelles 1
1 Morocco 182 Tanzania 153 Niger 74 Zambia 45 Congo 36 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 242 Cabo Verde 173 Libya 164 Angola 95 Mauritius 76 Eswatini 5
1 South Africa 202 Nigeria 163 Benin 144 Rwanda 145 Lesotho 96 Zimbabwe 8
1 Senegal 242 Congo DR 193 Sudan 154 Togo 95 South Sudan 76 Mauritania 6
1 Egypt 282 Sierra Leone 183 Burkina Faso 144 Guinea-Bissau 135 Ethiopia 96 Djibouti 1
1 Japan 262 Australia 163 Saudi Arabia 134 Indonesia 125 China PR 96 Bahrain 6
1 Korea Rep. 222 Jordan 173 Iraq 134 Oman 115 Palestine 106 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 232 Uzbekistan 213 Qatar 144 UAE 145 Kyrgyz Republic 86 Korea DPR 3
Qualifying Rounds
1 Jamaica 162 Curaçao 93 Grenada 44 Guatemala 3
1 Panama 142 Haiti 93 Suriname 54 El Salvador 4
1 Costa Rica 182 Honduras 83 Cayman Islands 44 Nicaragua 4
1 UAE 122 Qatar 33 Indonesia 3
1 Oman 122 Iraq 63 Saudi Arabia 0
UEFA Playoffs

Portugal def.

Luxembourg

Wales def.

Greece

Portugal def.

Wales

Italy def.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Poland def.

Czechia

Poland def.

Italy

Germany def.

Northern Ireland

Türkiye def.

Romania

Türkiye def.

Germany

North Macedonia def.

Switzerland

Ukraine def.

Albania

Ukraine def.

North Macedonia
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Congo DR def.

Tunisia

Comoros def.

Gabon

Comoros def.

Congo DR

Iraq def.

Qatar
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs

Comoros def.

New Caledonia

Curaçao def.

Haiti

Bolivia def.

Comoros

Iraq def.

Curaçao