2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

USA 1656

Mexico 1649

Canada 1526

Argentina 1890

France 1886

Spain 1858

England 1798

Netherlands 1788

Brazil 1763

Belgium 1756

Italy 1741

Portugal 1738
Pot 2 & ranking points

Germany 1729

Morocco 1725

Uruguay 1676

Croatia 1671

Japan 1665

Iran 1656

Senegal 1632

Switzerland 1628

Colombia 1628

Denmark 1622

Korea Rep. 1593

Türkiye 1584
Pot 3 & ranking points

Austria 1574

Sweden 1566

Serbia 1550

Australia 1537

Egypt 1532

Ecuador 1528

Panama 1520

Qatar 1501

Cameroon 1500

Czechia 1496

Algeria 1484

Côte d'Ivoire 1482
Pot 4 & ranking points

Paraguay 1479

Costa Rica 1471

Tunisia 1443

South Africa 1443

Saudi Arabia 1425

Uzbekistan 1414

Jordan 1396

Honduras 1392

Oman 1368

Ghana 1362

Curaçao 1324

Fiji 1091

Qatar def.

Tunisia

Brazil def.

Mexico

Portugal def.

Ecuador

Spain def.

Italy

Korea Rep. def.

Algeria

Japan def.

Uruguay

England def.

Denmark

Iran def.

Switzerland

Egypt def.

Belgium

Morocco def.

Sweden

Croatia def.

Côte d'Ivoire

Cameroon def.

Türkiye

Serbia def.

Colombia

Argentina def.

Austria

Germany def.

Panama

France def.

Netherlands

Brazil def.

Qatar

Spain def.

Portugal

Korea Rep. def.

Japan

Iran def.

England

Egypt def.

Morocco

Croatia def.

Cameroon

Argentina def.

Serbia

France def.

Germany

Spain def.

Brazil

Iran def.

Korea Rep.

Croatia def.

Egypt

Argentina def.

France

Iran def.

Spain

Argentina def.

Croatia

Argentina def.

Iran
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 5 June 2025 20:30 GMT
FIFA rankings were initially used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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UEFA Playoffs

Türkiye def.

Rep. of Ireland

Türkiye def.

Wales

Switzerland def.

Greece

Switzerland def.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Northern Ireland def.

Finland

Serbia def.

Northern Ireland

Norway def.

Iceland

Croatia def.

Norway
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Mali def.

Gabon

Mozambique def.

Cabo Verde

Mali def.

Mozambique

Oman def.

UAE
OFC Final

Fiji def.

Tahiti
Intercontinental Playoffs

El Salvador def.

Tahiti

Oman def.

Bolivia

Honduras def.

El Salvador

Oman def.

Mali