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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 26 March 2025)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1655
Mexico 1640
Canada 1507
France 1878
Argentina 1872
Spain 1851
Brazil 1819
England 1794
Netherlands 1763
Portugal 1756
Belgium 1755
Croatia 1720
Pot 2 & ranking points
Italy 1719
Morocco 1713
Colombia 1702
Uruguay 1687
Iran 1652
Senegal 1651
Switzerland 1642
Denmark 1641
Japan 1638
Austria 1614
Korea Rep. 1593
Ecuador 1568
Pot 3 & ranking points
Egypt 1564
Australia 1539
Wales 1531
Panama 1515
Costa Rica 1512
Poland 1507
Qatar 1499
Tunisia 1494
Czechia 1493
Algeria 1485
Mali 1477
Cameroon 1476
Pot 4 & ranking points
Côte d'Ivoire 1465
Paraguay 1456
Venezuela 1455
Iraq 1454
North Macedonia 1441
South Africa 1438
Saudi Arabia 1434
Uzbekistan 1429
Northern Ireland 1403
Honduras 1371
Ghana 1356
New Zealand 1255
Group 1
2Colombia 7
3Cameroon 4
1France 3
4Saudi Arabia 3
Avg. Ranking 1623
Group 2
2Switzerland 6
3Czechia 6
4Paraguay 6
1Mexico 0
Avg. Ranking 1558
Group 3
1England 9
2Uruguay 4
3Australia 4
4South Africa 0
Avg. Ranking 1615
Group 4
2Austria 9
3Egypt 4
1Belgium 4
4Iraq 0
Avg. Ranking 1597
Group 5
1Argentina 9
2Korea Rep. 4
3Panama 3
4Ghana 1
Avg. Ranking 1584
Group 6
3Costa Rica 7
2Iran 6
4Northern Ireland 4
1Croatia 0
Avg. Ranking 1572
Group 7
1USA 6
3Poland 6
2Senegal 4
4North Macedonia 1
Avg. Ranking 1563
Group 8
1Spain 9
2Italy 6
3Tunisia 3
4Uzbekistan 0
Avg. Ranking 1623
Group 9
2Japan 6
1Brazil 6
3Mali 4
4Honduras 1
Avg. Ranking 1576
Group 10
1Portugal 9
2Morocco 6
4Venezuela 1
3Wales 1
Avg. Ranking 1614
Group 11
2Ecuador 7
1Canada 7
3Algeria 3
4New Zealand 0
Avg. Ranking 1454
Group 12
3Qatar 7
1Netherlands 4
2Denmark 4
4Côte d'Ivoire 1
Avg. Ranking 1592
Czechia def. Denmark
Belgium def. Morocco
Argentina def. Iran
USA def. Italy
Canada def. Cameroon
Japan def. Uruguay
Costa Rica def. Korea Rep.
Poland def. Spain
Paraguay def. Brazil
Northern Ireland def. Portugal
Ecuador def. Senegal
Australia def. Qatar
Austria def. Egypt
England def. Mali
Switzerland def. Netherlands
Panama def. Colombia
Czechia def. Belgium
Argentina def. USA
Japan def. Canada
Poland def. Costa Rica
Northern Ireland def. Paraguay
Ecuador def. Australia
England def. Austria
Panama def. Switzerland
Argentina def. Czechia
Japan def. Poland
Ecuador def. Northern Ireland
England def. Panama
Argentina def. Japan
England def. Ecuador
England def. Argentina
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.

European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 24
2 Czechia 18
3 Faroe Islands 9
4 Montenegro 6
5 Gibraltar 3
1 Serbia 18
2 England 18
3 Albania 12
4 Latvia 7
5 Andorra 0
1 Northern Ireland 13
2 Germany 12
3 Slovakia 10
4 Luxembourg 0
1 Italy 20
2 Norway 18
3 Moldova 8
4 Estonia 7
5 Israel 4
1 Austria 22
2 Romania 15
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 13
4 Cyprus 7
5 San Marino 1
1 Netherlands 22
2 Poland 14
3 Finland 8
4 Lithuania 7
5 Malta 4
1 Portugal 15
2 Rep. of Ireland 7
3 Armenia 7
4 Hungary 6
1 Spain 15
2 Georgia 10
3 Bulgaria 5
4 Türkiye 4
1 France 16
2 Ukraine 12
3 Iceland 6
4 Azerbaijan 1
1 Denmark 18
2 Scotland 9
3 Greece 6
4 Belarus 3
1 Switzerland 14
2 Kosovo 11
3 Sweden 7
4 Slovenia 1
1 Belgium 21
2 North Macedonia 19
3 Wales 13
4 Kazakhstan 6
5 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 38
2 Brazil 33
3 Uruguay 33
4 Ecuador 32
5 Colombia 28
6 Paraguay 25
7 Bolivia 18
8 Venezuela 18
9 Peru 11
10 Chile 10
1 El Salvador 10
2 Suriname 7
3 Puerto Rico 5
4 Anguilla 3
5 St Vincent & the Grenadines 3
1 Jamaica 12
2 Guatemala 9
3 Dominican Republic 6
4 British Virgin Isl. 3
5 Dominica 0
1 Panama 12
2 Guyana 7
3 Nicaragua 6
4 Montserrat 2
5 Belize 1
1 Curaçao 12
2 Haiti 9
3 Barbados 4
4 St Lucia 2
5 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 Trinidad & Tobago 7
3 Grenada 5
4 St Kitts & Nevis 4
5 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 9
2 Cayman Islands 7
3 Cuba 5
4 Bermuda 3
5 Antigua & Barbuda 2
1 Mali 21
2 Ghana 21
3 Comoros 16
4 Madagascar 13
5 Central African Republic 12
6 Chad 3
1 Tunisia 28
2 Namibia 17
3 Equatorial Guinea 16
4 Liberia 10
5 Malawi 10
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 4
1 Algeria 25
2 Mozambique 19
3 Uganda 18
4 Botswana 12
5 Guinea 11
6 Somalia 2
1 Côte d'Ivoire 25
2 Gabon 24
3 Burundi 14
4 Kenya 13
5 Gambia 8
6 Seychelles 1
1 Morocco 18
2 Niger 10
3 Zambia 7
4 Congo 6
5 Tanzania 6
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 22
2 Angola 17
3 Cabo Verde 17
4 Libya 12
5 Mauritius 7
6 Eswatini 5
1 South Africa 21
2 Nigeria 17
3 Benin 12
4 Rwanda 11
5 Zimbabwe 10
6 Lesotho 8
1 Senegal 22
2 Congo DR 22
3 Sudan 14
4 Togo 11
5 Mauritania 8
6 South Sudan 3
1 Egypt 28
2 Sierra Leone 18
3 Burkina Faso 16
4 Guinea-Bissau 12
5 Ethiopia 6
6 Djibouti 2
1 Japan 24
2 Australia 14
3 Saudi Arabia 13
4 Bahrain 12
5 Indonesia 9
6 China PR 9
1 Korea Rep. 22
2 Iraq 15
3 Jordan 14
4 Oman 14
5 Kuwait 8
6 Palestine 6
1 Iran 26
2 Uzbekistan 20
3 UAE 14
4 Qatar 13
5 Kyrgyz Republic 10
6 Korea DPR 2
Qualifying Rounds
1 Honduras 14
2 Jamaica 13
3 Haiti 4
4 Suriname 3
1 Costa Rica 18
2 Curaçao 12
3 Guatemala 6
4 Cayman Islands 0
1 Panama 13
2 El Salvador 13
3 Trinidad & Tobago 7
4 Guyana 1
1 Saudi Arabia 10
2 UAE 4
3 Oman 2
1 Qatar 12
2 Bahrain 6
3 Jordan 0
UEFA Playoffs
San Marino def. Germany
Czechia def. Norway
Czechia def. San Marino
Ukraine def. Moldova
Poland def. Scotland
Poland def. Ukraine
Serbia def. Kosovo
North Macedonia def. Romania
North Macedonia def. Serbia
Wales def. Rep. of Ireland
Georgia def. Sweden
Wales def. Georgia
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Mozambique def. Gabon
Ghana def. Congo DR
Ghana def. Mozambique
UAE def. Bahrain
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
Ghana def. New Caledonia
El Salvador def. UAE
Ghana def. Jamaica
Venezuela def. El Salvador