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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 2 December 2023)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1656
Mexico 1649
Canada 1526
Argentina 1890
France 1886
Spain 1858
England 1798
Netherlands 1788
Brazil 1763
Belgium 1756
Italy 1741
Portugal 1738
Pot 2 & ranking points
Germany 1729
Morocco 1725
Uruguay 1676
Croatia 1671
Japan 1665
Iran 1656
Senegal 1632
Switzerland 1628
Colombia 1628
Denmark 1622
Korea Rep. 1593
Türkiye 1584
Pot 3 & ranking points
Austria 1574
Sweden 1566
Serbia 1550
Australia 1537
Egypt 1532
Ecuador 1528
Panama 1520
Qatar 1501
Cameroon 1500
Czechia 1496
Algeria 1484
Côte d'Ivoire 1482
Pot 4 & ranking points
Paraguay 1479
Costa Rica 1471
Tunisia 1443
South Africa 1443
Saudi Arabia 1425
Uzbekistan 1414
Jordan 1396
Honduras 1392
Oman 1368
Ghana 1362
Curaçao 1324
Fiji 1091
Group 1
1France 9
2Korea Rep. 6
3Panama 3
4Fiji 0
Avg. Ranking 1523
Group 2
2Germany 9
3Qatar 6
1Netherlands 3
4Costa Rica 0
Avg. Ranking 1622
Group 3
1Argentina 7
2Japan 5
3Sweden 4
4Ghana 0
Avg. Ranking 1620
Group 4
2Colombia 7
1Mexico 7
3Austria 3
4South Africa 0
Avg. Ranking 1574
Group 5
1England 7
3Ecuador 7
4Uzbekistan 3
2Senegal 0
Avg. Ranking 1593
Group 6
2Denmark 7
1Portugal 5
3Egypt 4
4Oman 0
Avg. Ranking 1565
Group 7
1Italy 9
3Côte d'Ivoire 4
2Switzerland 4
4Honduras 0
Avg. Ranking 1561
Group 8
2Iran 9
1Spain 4
3Cameroon 4
4Curaçao 0
Avg. Ranking 1584
Group 9
1Belgium 9
2Uruguay 4
4Saudi Arabia 3
3Czechia 1
Avg. Ranking 1588
Group 10
2Morocco 9
1Brazil 4
3Serbia 3
4Jordan 1
Avg. Ranking 1609
Group 11
2Croatia 9
3Algeria 4
1Canada 3
4Paraguay 1
Avg. Ranking 1540
Group 12
2Türkiye 9
4Tunisia 4
3Australia 2
1USA 1
Avg. Ranking 1555
Qatar def. Tunisia
Brazil def. Mexico
Portugal def. Ecuador
Spain def. Italy
Korea Rep. def. Algeria
Japan def. Uruguay
England def. Denmark
Iran def. Switzerland
Egypt def. Belgium
Morocco def. Sweden
Croatia def. Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon def. Türkiye
Serbia def. Colombia
Argentina def. Austria
Germany def. Panama
France def. Netherlands
Brazil def. Qatar
Spain def. Portugal
Korea Rep. def. Japan
Iran def. England
Egypt def. Morocco
Croatia def. Cameroon
Argentina def. Serbia
France def. Germany
Spain def. Brazil
Iran def. Korea Rep.
Croatia def. Egypt
Argentina def. France
Iran def. Spain
Argentina def. Croatia
Argentina def. Iran
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 5 June 2025 20:30 GMT

FIFA rankings were initially used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.

To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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UEFA Playoffs
Türkiye def. Rep. of Ireland
Türkiye def. Wales
Switzerland def. Greece
Switzerland def. Bosnia & Herzegovina
Northern Ireland def. Finland
Serbia def. Northern Ireland
Norway def. Iceland
Croatia def. Norway
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Mali def. Gabon
Mozambique def. Cabo Verde
Mali def. Mozambique
Oman def. UAE
OFC Final
Fiji def. Tahiti
Intercontinental Playoffs
El Salvador def. Tahiti
Oman def. Bolivia
Honduras def. El Salvador
Oman def. Mali