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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 26 March 2025)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
Mexico 1650
USA 1625
Canada 1521
France 1892
Spain 1879
Argentina 1862
England 1821
Netherlands 1788
Portugal 1769
Belgium 1759
Brazil 1758
Uruguay 1727
Pot 2 & ranking points
Morocco 1702
Colombia 1686
Croatia 1680
Japan 1674
Senegal 1655
Austria 1633
Denmark 1631
Iran 1623
Ukraine 1585
Korea Rep. 1583
Hungary 1582
Ecuador 1559
Pot 3 & ranking points
Sweden 1558
Australia 1558
Türkiye 1556
Egypt 1556
Poland 1550
Panama 1547
Norway 1528
Costa Rica 1518
Cameroon 1507
Slovakia 1505
Algeria 1497
Côte d'Ivoire 1461
Pot 4 & ranking points
Iraq 1450
Uzbekistan 1440
Paraguay 1436
Jamaica 1436
UAE 1408
South Africa 1402
Jordan 1396
Bolivia 1365
Oman 1335
Ghana 1300
New Zealand 1259
Namibia 1209
Group 1
3Slovakia 7
2Morocco 5
4UAE 3
1Belgium 1
Avg. Ranking 1594
Group 2
1Uruguay 6
4Namibia 4
2Iran 4
3Costa Rica 2
Avg. Ranking 1519
Group 3
1Spain 9
3Poland 6
2Korea Rep. 3
4Bolivia 0
Avg. Ranking 1594
Group 4
1Portugal 6
2Hungary 6
4Oman 3
3Cameroon 3
Avg. Ranking 1548
Group 5
2Ukraine 9
3Sweden 4
4Paraguay 3
1USA 1
Avg. Ranking 1551
Group 6
1France 9
2Denmark 6
3Algeria 3
4Jamaica 0
Avg. Ranking 1614
Group 7
1Netherlands 5
2Senegal 5
3Türkiye 3
4Iraq 2
Avg. Ranking 1612
Group 8
3Australia 5
4New Zealand 5
2Ecuador 3
1Canada 1
Avg. Ranking 1474
Group 9
1Brazil 7
2Japan 4
4Ghana 3
3Panama 3
Avg. Ranking 1570
Group 10
3Norway 9
1Mexico 4
2Colombia 4
4South Africa 0
Avg. Ranking 1567
Group 11
1Argentina 9
4Jordan 3
3Côte d'Ivoire 3
2Austria 3
Avg. Ranking 1588
Group 12
2Croatia 9
1England 4
3Egypt 3
4Uzbekistan 1
Avg. Ranking 1624
England def. Namibia
Portugal def. Colombia
Denmark def. Ukraine
Senegal def. Australia
Morocco def. Côte d'Ivoire
Japan def. Poland
France def. Sweden
Netherlands def. New Zealand
Brazil def. Iran
Norway def. Mexico
Argentina def. Paraguay
Croatia def. Korea Rep.
UAE def. Hungary
Spain def. Cameroon
Uruguay def. Algeria
Türkiye def. Slovakia
Portugal def. England
Denmark def. Senegal
Japan def. Morocco
France def. Netherlands
Brazil def. Norway
Croatia def. Argentina
Spain def. UAE
Türkiye def. Uruguay
Portugal def. Denmark
France def. Japan
Brazil def. Croatia
Türkiye def. Spain
France def. Portugal
Brazil def. Türkiye
France def. Brazil
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.

European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
Simulate Again!
Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 20
2 Czechia 17
3 Faroe Islands 10
4 Montenegro 10
5 Gibraltar 0
1 England 24
2 Albania 16
3 Serbia 13
4 Andorra 3
5 Latvia 3
1 Slovakia 12
2 Luxembourg 10
3 Germany 9
4 Northern Ireland 2
1 Norway 20
2 Italy 18
3 Israel 8
4 Estonia 5
5 Moldova 3
1 Austria 24
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 15
3 Cyprus 12
4 Romania 9
5 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 24
2 Poland 18
3 Finland 10
4 Lithuania 4
5 Malta 3
1 Hungary 16
2 Portugal 13
3 Rep. of Ireland 4
4 Armenia 1
1 Spain 18
2 Türkiye 10
3 Georgia 7
4 Bulgaria 0
1 France 16
2 Ukraine 11
3 Iceland 7
4 Azerbaijan 0
1 Denmark 15
2 Greece 13
3 Scotland 5
4 Belarus 1
1 Sweden 13
2 Switzerland 13
3 Slovenia 9
4 Kosovo 0
1 Belgium 22
2 Wales 12
3 North Macedonia 12
4 Kazakhstan 8
5 Liechtenstein 1
1 Argentina 38
2 Uruguay 36
3 Brazil 30
4 Ecuador 29
5 Colombia 25
6 Paraguay 24
7 Bolivia 23
8 Venezuela 18
9 Peru 14
10 Chile 10
1 Puerto Rico 8
2 El Salvador 8
3 Suriname 8
4 St Vincent & the Grenadines 1
5 Anguilla 1
1 Guatemala 12
2 Jamaica 9
3 Dominican Republic 6
4 Dominica 1
5 British Virgin Isl. 1
1 Panama 12
2 Nicaragua 9
3 Montserrat 6
4 Guyana 3
5 Belize 0
1 Curaçao 12
2 Haiti 9
3 Aruba 4
4 Barbados 3
5 St Lucia 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 Grenada 7
3 Trinidad & Tobago 5
4 St Kitts & Nevis 4
5 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 12
2 Cayman Islands 6
3 Cuba 5
4 Antigua & Barbuda 2
5 Bermuda 2
1 Comoros 22
2 Ghana 22
3 Madagascar 17
4 Mali 16
5 Central African Republic 5
6 Chad 3
1 Namibia 24
2 Tunisia 23
3 Equatorial Guinea 15
4 Liberia 11
5 Malawi 10
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Algeria 25
2 Mozambique 18
3 Guinea 15
4 Uganda 14
5 Botswana 11
6 Somalia 1
1 Côte d'Ivoire 24
2 Gabon 22
3 Burundi 15
4 Kenya 11
5 Gambia 10
6 Seychelles 1
1 Morocco 18
2 Tanzania 15
3 Niger 7
4 Zambia 4
5 Congo 3
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 24
2 Cabo Verde 17
3 Libya 16
4 Angola 9
5 Mauritius 7
6 Eswatini 5
1 South Africa 20
2 Nigeria 16
3 Benin 14
4 Rwanda 14
5 Lesotho 9
6 Zimbabwe 8
1 Senegal 24
2 Congo DR 19
3 Sudan 15
4 Togo 9
5 South Sudan 7
6 Mauritania 6
1 Egypt 28
2 Sierra Leone 18
3 Burkina Faso 14
4 Guinea-Bissau 13
5 Ethiopia 9
6 Djibouti 1
1 Japan 26
2 Australia 16
3 Saudi Arabia 13
4 Indonesia 12
5 China PR 9
6 Bahrain 6
1 Korea Rep. 22
2 Jordan 17
3 Iraq 13
4 Oman 11
5 Palestine 10
6 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 23
2 Uzbekistan 21
3 Qatar 14
4 UAE 14
5 Kyrgyz Republic 8
6 Korea DPR 3
Qualifying Rounds
1 Jamaica 16
2 Curaçao 9
3 Grenada 4
4 Guatemala 3
1 Panama 14
2 Haiti 9
3 Suriname 5
4 El Salvador 4
1 Costa Rica 18
2 Honduras 8
3 Cayman Islands 4
4 Nicaragua 4
1 UAE 12
2 Qatar 3
3 Indonesia 3
1 Oman 12
2 Iraq 6
3 Saudi Arabia 0
UEFA Playoffs
Portugal def. Luxembourg
Wales def. Greece
Portugal def. Wales
Italy def. Bosnia & Herzegovina
Poland def. Czechia
Poland def. Italy
Germany def. Northern Ireland
Türkiye def. Romania
Türkiye def. Germany
North Macedonia def. Switzerland
Ukraine def. Albania
Ukraine def. North Macedonia
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Congo DR def. Tunisia
Comoros def. Gabon
Comoros def. Congo DR
Iraq def. Qatar
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
Comoros def. New Caledonia
Curaçao def. Haiti
Bolivia def. Comoros
Iraq def. Curaçao