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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 2 December 2023)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1683
Mexico 1646
Canada 1462
France 1904
Argentina 1890
Brazil 1834
England 1828
Belgium 1817
Croatia 1790
Portugal 1740
Uruguay 1722
Italy 1721
Pot 2 & ranking points
Netherlands 1701
Spain 1699
Morocco 1680
Colombia 1658
Iran 1645
Switzerland 1614
Denmark 1608
Japan 1607
Senegal 1591
Ukraine 1581
Panama 1555
Algeria 1531
Pot 3 & ranking points
Türkiye 1531
Korea Rep. 1515
Burkina Faso 1489
Cameroon 1477
Slovakia 1471
Costa Rica 1467
Iraq 1465
Slovenia 1460
Ecuador 1459
Côte d'Ivoire 1453
Qatar 1446
Paraguay 1446
Pot 4 & ranking points
South Africa 1444
Albania 1422
Congo DR 1409
Saudi Arabia 1395
Montenegro 1388
Oman 1369
Bahrain 1365
El Salvador 1365
Haiti 1350
Equatorial Guinea 1324
Comoros 1227
Vanuatu 1027
Group 1
4El Salvador 6
3Cameroon 4
1Belgium 4
2Ukraine 2
Avg. Ranking 1560
Group 2
3Türkiye 6
2Senegal 6
1Argentina 6
4Saudi Arabia 0
Avg. Ranking 1602
Group 3
1USA 7
2Spain 5
3Qatar 4
4Montenegro 0
Avg. Ranking 1554
Group 4
1Mexico 7
2Japan 7
3Burkina Faso 3
4Vanuatu 0
Avg. Ranking 1442
Group 5
1Portugal 6
2Panama 6
3Ecuador 6
4Comoros 0
Avg. Ranking 1495
Group 6
1England 9
4Albania 4
2Algeria 3
3Iraq 1
Avg. Ranking 1561
Group 7
1Italy 7
2Morocco 7
3Costa Rica 3
4Oman 0
Avg. Ranking 1559
Group 8
1Brazil 9
3Slovenia 4
2Denmark 4
4Equatorial Guinea 0
Avg. Ranking 1556
Group 9
2Netherlands 6
3Slovakia 4
1Uruguay 4
4Congo DR 2
Avg. Ranking 1576
Group 10
1France 7
2Colombia 7
4Haiti 1
3Korea Rep. 1
Avg. Ranking 1607
Group 11
2Switzerland 6
1Canada 6
4Bahrain 3
3Côte d'Ivoire 3
Avg. Ranking 1474
Group 12
2Iran 7
4South Africa 4
1Croatia 4
3Paraguay 1
Avg. Ranking 1581
Argentina def. El Salvador
USA def. Japan
Ecuador def. Albania
Denmark def. Italy
Senegal def. Cameroon
Mexico def. Spain
Portugal def. England
Brazil def. Morocco
Netherlands def. Türkiye
France def. Panama
Canada def. Slovakia
Iran def. South Africa
Qatar def. Uruguay
Colombia def. Slovenia
Switzerland def. Belgium
Croatia def. Costa Rica
Argentina def. USA
Denmark def. Ecuador
Mexico def. Senegal
Portugal def. Brazil
France def. Netherlands
Iran def. Canada
Colombia def. Qatar
Croatia def. Switzerland
Argentina def. Denmark
Mexico def. Portugal
France def. Iran
Croatia def. Colombia
Mexico def. Argentina
France def. Croatia
France def. Mexico
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. Last update: 1 December - updated African, South American, Asian fixtures to most recent results, along with all initial team ELOs

FIFA rankings were initially used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.

To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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Qualifying Rounds
1 France 15
2 Romania 9
3 Greece 7
4 Bulgaria 4
1 Netherlands 15
2 Türkiye 10
3 Northern Ireland 7
4 Latvia 3
1 Denmark 16
2 Montenegro 9
3 Scotland 8
4 Cyprus 0
1 Belgium 18
2 Hungary 7
3 Belarus 6
4 North Macedonia 4
1 Croatia 18
2 Kazakhstan 12
3 Wales 6
4 Georgia 0
1 Portugal 15
2 Kosovo 9
3 Norway 9
4 Rep. of Ireland 3
1 England 24
2 Austria 18
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 8
4 Luxembourg 4
5 Moldova 2
1 Ukraine 19
2 Finland 13
3 Serbia 13
4 Armenia 8
5 San Marino 1
1 Czechia 18
2 Albania 18
3 Germany 18
4 Lithuania 4
5 Andorra 1
1 Italy 22
2 Sweden 14
3 Israel 11
4 Faroe Islands 7
5 Malta 3
1 Spain 15
2 Slovenia 15
3 Poland 13
4 Estonia 13
5 Liechtenstein 3
1 Switzerland 18
2 Slovakia 17
3 Azerbaijan 14
4 Iceland 7
5 Gibraltar 0
1 Fiji 7
2 Tahiti 7
3 New Zealand 7
4 New Caledonia 4
5 Tonga 3
1 Solomon Islands 9
2 Vanuatu 7
3 Samoa 6
4 Papua New Guinea 6
5 American Samoa 1
1 Argentina 48
2 Brazil 38
3 Uruguay 35
4 Colombia 33
5 Paraguay 20
6 Ecuador 20
7 Venezuela 19
8 Peru 17
9 Chile 10
10 Bolivia 10
1 Curaçao 22
2 St. Lucia 10
3 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 9
4 Suriname 8
5 Bahamas 5
1 Panama 20
2 St. Kitts and Nevis 13
3 Dominican Republic 10
4 Aruba 6
5 Bermuda 4
1 Costa Rica 22
2 Puerto Rico 14
3 Dominica 10
4 Belize 8
5 Nicaragua 2
1 Haiti 21
2 Antigua & Barbuda 18
3 Jamaica 12
4 British Virgin Isl. 4
5 Grenada 4
1 Honduras 24
2 Cuba 14
3 Trinidad & Tobago 11
4 Barbados 7
5 Cayman Islands 1
1 El Salvador 20
2 Guatemala 18
3 Anguilla 6
4 Guyana 6
5 Montserrat 5
6 Mexico 0
7 USA 0
8 Canada 0
1 Comoros 25
2 Ghana 18
3 Mali 17
4 Central African Republic 14
5 Madagascar 10
6 Chad 1
1 Equatorial Guinea 25
2 Tunisia 21
3 Namibia 19
4 Malawi 14
5 Liberia 7
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Algeria 27
2 Guinea 16
3 Mozambique 14
4 Botswana 13
5 Uganda 12
6 Somalia 6
1 Côte d'Ivoire 24
2 Gambia 15
3 Kenya 14
4 Burundi 14
5 Gabon 12
6 Seychelles 6
1 Morocco 24
2 Zambia 15
3 Tanzania 9
4 Niger 7
5 Congo 4
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 25
2 Cabo Verde 23
3 Angola 15
4 Libya 12
5 Eswatini 7
6 Mauritius 2
1 South Africa 27
2 Benin 14
3 Nigeria 13
4 Rwanda 12
5 Zimbabwe 12
6 Lesotho 4
1 Congo DR 22
2 Senegal 19
3 Mauritania 17
4 Togo 16
5 Sudan 10
6 South Sudan 1
1 Burkina Faso 23
2 Egypt 20
3 Sierra Leone 19
4 Ethiopia 11
5 Guinea-Bissau 9
6 Djibouti 3
1 Australia 15
2 Palestine 8
3 Lebanon 6
1 UAE 18
2 Bahrain 9
4 Nepal 3
1 Saudi Arabia 15
2 Tajikistan 13
3 Jordan 5
1 Iraq 16
2 Vietnam 8
3 Indonesia 6
4 Philippines 2
1 Iran 16
2 Uzbekistan 11
3 Hong Kong 3
4 Turkmenistan 2
1 Kyrgyz Republic 13
2 Oman 12
3 Malaysia 10
4 Chinese Taipei 0
1 China PR 15
2 Korea Rep. 13
3 Thailand 7
4 Singapore 0
1 Japan 18
2 Syria 10
3 Korea DPR 4
4 Myanmar 3
1 Qatar 15
2 India 13
3 Kuwait 6
4 Afghanistan 1
Qualifying Rounds
75 Panama 18
76 Curaçao 9
77 Cuba 4
78 Antigua & Barbuda 4
1 Haiti 16
2 Honduras 8
3 Guatemala 5
4 St. Lucia 4
1 El Salvador 14
2 Costa Rica 13
3 St. Kitts and Nevis 5
4 Puerto Rico 1
1 Qatar 20
2 Japan 20
3 China PR 17
4 UAE 14
5 Palestine 5
6 Kyrgyz Republic 4
1 Iraq 23
2 Bahrain 19
3 Korea Rep. 18
4 India 11
5 Australia 10
6 Syria 2
1 Iran 25
2 Oman 16
3 Saudi Arabia 14
4 Tajikistan 10
5 Uzbekistan 10
6 Vietnam 10
Qualifying Rounds
164 Korea Rep. 10
165 India 4
166 China PR 2
1 Saudi Arabia 9
2 UAE 5
3 Tajikistan 2
UEFA Playoffs
Türkiye def. Romania
Türkiye def. Austria
Montenegro def. Kazakhstan
Montenegro def. Czechia
Finland def. Kosovo
Slovakia def. Finland
Hungary def. Sweden
Slovenia def. Hungary
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Senegal def. Cabo Verde
Tunisia def. Egypt
Senegal def. Tunisia
UAE def. India
OFC Final
Vanuatu def. Solomon Islands
Intercontinental Playoffs
Curaçao def. Solomon Islands
Venezuela def. UAE
Costa Rica def. Curaçao
Senegal def. Venezuela
Continental Competition Winners
France def. Croatia
Burkina Faso def. Senegal
Panama def. USA
Iran def. Iraq
Uruguay def. Argentina