2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

USA 1655

Mexico 1640

Canada 1507

France 1878

Argentina 1872

Spain 1851

Brazil 1819

England 1794

Netherlands 1763

Portugal 1756

Belgium 1755

Croatia 1720
Pot 2 & ranking points

Italy 1719

Morocco 1713

Colombia 1702

Uruguay 1687

Iran 1652

Senegal 1651

Switzerland 1642

Denmark 1641

Japan 1638

Austria 1614

Korea Rep. 1593

Ecuador 1568
Pot 3 & ranking points

Egypt 1564

Australia 1539

Wales 1531

Panama 1515

Costa Rica 1512

Poland 1507

Qatar 1499

Tunisia 1494

Czechia 1493

Algeria 1485

Mali 1477

Cameroon 1476
Pot 4 & ranking points

Côte d'Ivoire 1465

Paraguay 1456

Venezuela 1455

Iraq 1454

North Macedonia 1441

South Africa 1438

Saudi Arabia 1434

Uzbekistan 1429

Northern Ireland 1403

Honduras 1371

Ghana 1356

New Zealand 1255

Czechia def.

Denmark

Belgium def.

Morocco

Argentina def.

Iran

USA def.

Italy

Canada def.

Cameroon

Japan def.

Uruguay

Costa Rica def.

Korea Rep.

Poland def.

Spain

Paraguay def.

Brazil

Northern Ireland def.

Portugal

Ecuador def.

Senegal

Australia def.

Qatar

Austria def.

Egypt

England def.

Mali

Switzerland def.

Netherlands

Panama def.

Colombia

Czechia def.

Belgium

Argentina def.

USA

Japan def.

Canada

Poland def.

Costa Rica

Northern Ireland def.

Paraguay

Ecuador def.

Australia

England def.

Austria

Panama def.

Switzerland

Argentina def.

Czechia

Japan def.

Poland

Ecuador def.

Northern Ireland

England def.

Panama

Argentina def.

Japan

England def.

Ecuador

England def.

Argentina
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025
Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.
European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.
Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 242 Czechia 183 Faroe Islands 94 Montenegro 65 Gibraltar 3
1 Serbia 182 England 183 Albania 124 Latvia 75 Andorra 0
1 Northern Ireland 132 Germany 123 Slovakia 104 Luxembourg 0
1 Italy 202 Norway 183 Moldova 84 Estonia 75 Israel 4
1 Austria 222 Romania 153 Bosnia & Herzegovina 134 Cyprus 75 San Marino 1
1 Netherlands 222 Poland 143 Finland 84 Lithuania 75 Malta 4
1 Portugal 152 Rep. of Ireland 73 Armenia 74 Hungary 6
1 Spain 152 Georgia 103 Bulgaria 54 Türkiye 4
1 France 162 Ukraine 123 Iceland 64 Azerbaijan 1
1 Denmark 182 Scotland 93 Greece 64 Belarus 3
1 Switzerland 142 Kosovo 113 Sweden 74 Slovenia 1
1 Belgium 212 North Macedonia 193 Wales 134 Kazakhstan 65 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 382 Brazil 333 Uruguay 334 Ecuador 325 Colombia 286 Paraguay 257 Bolivia 188 Venezuela 189 Peru 1110 Chile 10
1 El Salvador 102 Suriname 73 Puerto Rico 54 Anguilla 35 St Vincent & the Grenadines 3
1 Jamaica 122 Guatemala 93 Dominican Republic 64 British Virgin Isl. 35 Dominica 0
1 Panama 122 Guyana 73 Nicaragua 64 Montserrat 25 Belize 1
1 Curaçao 122 Haiti 93 Barbados 44 St Lucia 25 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 122 Trinidad & Tobago 73 Grenada 54 St Kitts & Nevis 45 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 92 Cayman Islands 73 Cuba 54 Bermuda 35 Antigua & Barbuda 2
1 Mali 212 Ghana 213 Comoros 164 Madagascar 135 Central African Republic 126 Chad 3
1 Tunisia 282 Namibia 173 Equatorial Guinea 164 Liberia 105 Malawi 106 São Tomé & Príncipe 4
1 Algeria 252 Mozambique 193 Uganda 184 Botswana 125 Guinea 116 Somalia 2
1 Côte d'Ivoire 252 Gabon 243 Burundi 144 Kenya 135 Gambia 86 Seychelles 1
1 Morocco 182 Niger 103 Zambia 74 Congo 65 Tanzania 66 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 222 Angola 173 Cabo Verde 174 Libya 125 Mauritius 76 Eswatini 5
1 South Africa 212 Nigeria 173 Benin 124 Rwanda 115 Zimbabwe 106 Lesotho 8
1 Senegal 222 Congo DR 223 Sudan 144 Togo 115 Mauritania 86 South Sudan 3
1 Egypt 282 Sierra Leone 183 Burkina Faso 164 Guinea-Bissau 125 Ethiopia 66 Djibouti 2
1 Japan 242 Australia 143 Saudi Arabia 134 Bahrain 125 Indonesia 96 China PR 9
1 Korea Rep. 222 Iraq 153 Jordan 144 Oman 145 Kuwait 86 Palestine 6
1 Iran 262 Uzbekistan 203 UAE 144 Qatar 135 Kyrgyz Republic 106 Korea DPR 2
Qualifying Rounds
1 Honduras 142 Jamaica 133 Haiti 44 Suriname 3
1 Costa Rica 182 Curaçao 123 Guatemala 64 Cayman Islands 0
1 Panama 132 El Salvador 133 Trinidad & Tobago 74 Guyana 1
1 Saudi Arabia 102 UAE 43 Oman 2
1 Qatar 122 Bahrain 63 Jordan 0
UEFA Playoffs

San Marino def.

Germany

Czechia def.

Norway

Czechia def.

San Marino

Ukraine def.

Moldova

Poland def.

Scotland

Poland def.

Ukraine

Serbia def.

Kosovo

North Macedonia def.

Romania

North Macedonia def.

Serbia

Wales def.

Rep. of Ireland

Georgia def.

Sweden

Wales def.

Georgia
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Mozambique def.

Gabon

Ghana def.

Congo DR

Ghana def.

Mozambique

UAE def.

Bahrain
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs

Ghana def.

New Caledonia

El Salvador def.

UAE

Ghana def.

Jamaica

Venezuela def.

El Salvador