2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

France 1877

Argentina 1876

Brazil 1832

Belgium 1828

Portugal 1754

Italy 1737

Croatia 1733

Switzerland 1684

Morocco 1679

Spain 1674

USA 1668

Germany 1667
Pot 2 & ranking points

Colombia 1649

Denmark 1625

Iran 1623

Mexico 1622

Senegal 1621

Algeria 1591

Uruguay 1570

Czechia 1569

Japan 1567

Wales 1561

Tunisia 1550

Chile 1536
Pot 3 & ranking points

Austria 1535

Peru 1534

Australia 1530

Egypt 1523

Ukraine 1516

Cameroon 1506

Nigeria 1503

Turkey 1501

Costa Rica 1495

Korea Rep. 1491

Côte d'Ivoire 1488

Mali 1471
Pot 4 & ranking points

Venezuela 1464

Canada 1459

Jamaica 1447

Ghana 1441

Finland 1435

Albania 1406

UAE 1368

Haiti 1332

China PR 1322

Palestine 1291

India 1275

Solomon Islands 1128

Italy def.

Czechia

Croatia def.

Algeria

Portugal def.

Austria

France def.

Tunisia

Egypt def.

Ukraine

Mali def.

Costa Rica

Germany def.

Mexico

Argentina def.

Colombia

Brazil def.

Senegal

China PR def.

Peru

Jamaica def.

Spain

Switzerland def.

Turkey

Korea Rep. def.

Uruguay

USA def.

Cameroon

Wales def.

Belgium

Venezuela def.

Nigeria

Croatia def.

Italy

France def.

Portugal

Egypt def.

Mali

Germany def.

Argentina

China PR def.

Brazil

Switzerland def.

Jamaica

Korea Rep. def.

USA

Wales def.

Venezuela

France def.

Croatia

Germany def.

Egypt

Switzerland def.

China PR

Korea Rep. def.

Wales

France def.

Germany

Korea Rep. def.

Switzerland

France def.

Korea Rep.
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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Qualifying Rounds
1 France 162 Albania 103 Israel 34 Rep. of Ireland 3
1 Belgium 182 Wales 103 Greece 74 Luxembourg 0
1 Denmark 162 Ukraine 83 Iceland 74 Azerbaijan 3
1 Croatia 152 Romania 123 Bosnia & Herzegovina 74 Cyprus 1
1 Portugal 132 Poland 113 North Macedonia 74 Kazakhstan 3
1 Spain 132 Slovenia 123 Hungary 64 Belarus 4
1 Austria 182 England 173 Slovakia 164 Latvia 35 Malta 3
1 Germany 222 Serbia 153 Bulgaria 104 Armenia 95 Liechtenstein 3
1 Finland 172 Norway 153 Sweden 134 Kosovo 85 Gibraltar 1
1 Switzerland 222 Montenegro 153 Scotland 114 Lithuania 95 San Marino 0
1 Turkey 222 Netherlands 163 Andorra 94 Georgia 75 Faroe Islands 4
1 Italy 212 Czechia 193 Northern Ireland 94 Estonia 75 Moldova 3
1 Solomon Islands 82 New Caledonia 73 Vanuatu 54 Tonga 45 American Samoa 3
1 Tahiti 82 Fiji 73 Samoa 54 New Zealand 55 Papua New Guinea 1
1 Argentina 402 Brazil 403 Colombia 324 Venezuela 295 Chile 266 Uruguay 257 Peru 218 Paraguay 199 Ecuador 1610 Bolivia 6
1 El Salvador 212 Haiti 183 Guyana 104 Bermuda 75 Aruba 3
1 Costa Rica 242 Grenada 143 Suriname 144 Barbados 35 US Virgin Isl. 3
1 Panama 162 Antigua & Barbuda 133 Dominican Republic 124 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 105 Anguilla 3
1 Curaçao 192 St. Kitts and Nevis 133 Nicaragua 134 Dominica 115 Montserrat 1
1 Jamaica 242 Belize 93 Guatemala 94 Cayman Islands 85 Cuba 5
1 Honduras 202 St. Lucia 143 Puerto Rico 114 Trinidad & Tobago 95 Bahamas 16 Canada 07 USA 08 Mexico 0
1 Tunisia 272 Cabo Verde 233 Kenya 114 Angola 95 Lesotho 86 São Tomé & Príncipe 7
1 Egypt 302 Eritrea 163 Eswatini 124 Madagascar 105 Guinea 106 Central African Republic 5
1 Nigeria 262 Comoros 213 Gabon 134 Benin 115 Niger 86 Chad 5
1 Ghana 232 Cameroon 233 Guinea-Bissau 184 Tanzania 115 Libya 56 Seychelles 2
1 Côte d'Ivoire 252 Namibia 203 Burkina Faso 194 Zimbabwe 95 Botswana 76 Gambia 5
1 Mali 252 South Africa 163 Equatorial Guinea 114 Burundi 115 Togo 96 South Sudan 8
1 Algeria 272 Congo 203 Congo DR 164 Mozambique 125 Djibouti 96 Ethiopia 4
1 Senegal 272 Uganda 173 Sierra Leone 134 Sudan 115 Liberia 96 Mauritius 8
1 Morocco 272 Zambia 233 Mauritania 184 Rwanda 105 Somalia 46 Malawi 3
1 Japan 152 Philippines 103 Kyrgyz Republic 54 Cambodia 3
1 Iran 182 Lebanon 103 Hong Kong 44 Thailand 3
1 Korea Rep. 142 Tajikistan 133 Malaysia 44 Syria 2
1 Bahrain 132 UAE 123 Afghanistan 64 Chinese Taipei 1
1 India 152 Palestine 123 Qatar 74 Bangladesh 1
1 Uzbekistan 142 Myanmar 93 Korea DPR 64 Iraq 4
1 Australia 162 Turkmenistan 93 Nepal 64 Vietnam 4
1 China PR 132 Yemen 93 Oman 84 Indonesia 4
1 Saudi Arabia 112 Jordan 103 Kuwait 94 Singapore 2
Qualifying Rounds
75 Haiti 1676 El Salvador 877 Panama 778 Belize 3
1 Costa Rica 132 Curaçao 103 Antigua & Barbuda 64 Grenada 6
1 Jamaica 162 Honduras 113 St. Kitts and Nevis 64 St. Lucia 1
1 Japan 282 China PR 153 India 154 Saudi Arabia 135 Lebanon 96 Turkmenistan 4
1 Australia 252 Korea Rep. 203 Uzbekistan 154 Jordan 125 Yemen 106 Philippines 2
1 Iran 252 Palestine 203 UAE 164 Tajikistan 115 Bahrain 86 Myanmar 4
Qualifying Rounds
164 India 7165 Saudi Arabia 6166 Tajikistan 4
1 UAE 92 Jordan 73 Uzbekistan 1
UEFA Playoffs

Serbia def.

Norway

Albania def.

Serbia

England def.

Montenegro

Wales def.

England

Netherlands def.

Slovenia

Ukraine def.

Netherlands

Czechia def.

Poland

Czechia def.

Romania
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Cameroon def.

Comoros

Cabo Verde def.

Zambia

Cameroon def.

Cabo Verde

Saudi Arabia def.

Jordan
OFC Final

Solomon Islands def.

New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs

Curaçao def.

New Caledonia

Saudi Arabia def.

Honduras

Cameroon def.

Curaçao

Peru def.

Saudi Arabia
Continental Competition Winners

Portugal def.

France

Algeria def.

Mali

USA def.

Canada

Iran def.

Oman

Argentina def.

Colombia