2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Argentina 1938

France 1818

Belgium 1816

England 1794

Brazil 1782

Italy 1782

Netherlands 1745

Croatia 1737

Switzerland 1684

Morocco 1669

Spain 1661

USA 1649
Pot 2 & ranking points

Colombia 1633

Germany 1629

Senegal 1620

Uruguay 1612

Mexico 1612

Japan 1609

Sweden 1606

Tunisia 1584

Peru 1578

Korea Rep. 1575

Ukraine 1571

Serbia 1559
Pot 3 & ranking points

Iran 1559

Algeria 1554

Czechia 1533

Nigeria 1513

Costa Rica 1512

Burkina Faso 1508

Turkey 1503

Norway 1501

Australia 1501

Cameroon 1484

Mali 1480

Venezuela 1474
Pot 4 & ranking points

Iraq 1456

Panama 1437

Jamaica 1432

Canada 1432

Côte d'Ivoire 1415

China PR 1412

South Africa 1409

UAE 1381

Uzbekistan 1352

El Salvador 1287

Kosovo 1246

New Zealand 1216

Netherlands def.

Croatia

Colombia def.

Australia

Morocco def.

Serbia

Czechia def.

Costa Rica

Japan def.

China PR

England def.

Brazil

Venezuela def.

Italy

Spain def.

Korea Rep.

France def.

Iraq

Argentina def.

Canada

Norway def.

Belgium

Nigeria def.

Uzbekistan

Iran def.

Germany

USA def.

Turkey

Switzerland def.

Senegal

Uruguay def.

Algeria

Netherlands def.

Colombia

Czechia def.

Morocco

England def.

Japan

Spain def.

Venezuela

Argentina def.

France

Nigeria def.

Norway

USA def.

Iran

Uruguay def.

Switzerland

Czechia def.

Netherlands

Spain def.

England

Argentina def.

Nigeria

Uruguay def.

USA

Czechia def.

Spain

Argentina def.

Uruguay

Argentina def.

Czechia
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Italy 152 Hungary 123 Albania 74 Azerbaijan 1
1 France 142 Scotland 103 Slovenia 84 Lithuania 1
1 Belgium 182 Bulgaria 93 Romania 94 Kazakhstan 0
1 Czechia 142 Kosovo 83 Denmark 74 Georgia 4
1 England 142 North Macedonia 133 Austria 74 Belarus 0
1 Spain 142 Bosnia & Herzegovina 83 Israel 74 Poland 4
1 Turkey 192 Germany 163 Finland 144 Faroe Islands 75 Gibraltar 1
1 Switzerland 182 Wales 133 Luxembourg 104 Greece 95 Moldova 5
1 Ukraine 202 Netherlands 193 Armenia 104 Northern Ireland 85 Liechtenstein 0
1 Croatia 212 Rep. of Ireland 213 Iceland 124 Malta 45 Latvia 1
1 Norway 202 Sweden 163 Cyprus 84 Montenegro 55 Andorra 4
1 Serbia 212 Portugal 183 Slovakia 124 Estonia 95 San Marino 0
1 New Zealand 102 New Caledonia 63 Tahiti 64 Fiji 55 Samoa 1
1 Vanuatu 82 Papua New Guinea 63 Tonga 54 American Samoa 45 Solomon Islands 4
1 Argentina 492 Brazil 353 Colombia 324 Peru 295 Venezuela 236 Uruguay 227 Ecuador 218 Paraguay 169 Chile 1610 Bolivia 10
1 Curaçao 202 Montserrat 113 Dominican Republic 104 Cayman Islands 75 St. Kitts and Nevis 7
1 Haiti 192 Jamaica 193 Bermuda 114 Guyana 55 Bahamas 2
1 Honduras 172 Trinidad & Tobago 163 St. Lucia 104 Puerto Rico 75 Aruba 3
1 Antigua & Barbuda 152 El Salvador 103 Grenada 94 Dominica 95 Barbados 8
1 Costa Rica 212 Nicaragua 133 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 94 Cuba 85 US Virgin Isl. 5
1 Suriname 202 Panama 193 Belize 114 Turks & Caicos Isl. 65 Guatemala 16 USA 07 Mexico 08 Canada 0
1 Burkina Faso 232 Ghana 233 Kenya 124 South Sudan 105 Rwanda 96 Namibia 6
1 Senegal 272 Zambia 213 Eswatini 154 Zimbabwe 135 Libya 76 Mauritius 3
1 Algeria 272 Uganda 163 Sierra Leone 144 Mozambique 135 Comoros 116 Eritrea 6
1 Nigeria 282 Gabon 183 Botswana 134 Sudan 125 Equatorial Guinea 106 Chad 2
1 South Africa 272 Tunisia 273 Central African Republic 124 Niger 95 Mauritania 56 Somalia 3
1 Côte d'Ivoire 202 Guinea 193 Congo 194 Ethiopia 135 Malawi 136 São Tomé & Príncipe 3
1 Mali 302 Egypt 223 Burundi 104 Benin 95 Djibouti 76 Angola 6
1 Cameroon 272 Congo DR 243 Guinea-Bissau 124 Togo 115 Lesotho 86 Gambia 6
1 Morocco 282 Cabo Verde 183 Madagascar 144 Liberia 115 Tanzania 116 Seychelles 3
1 Saudi Arabia 132 Korea DPR 83 Singapore 74 Lebanon 5
1 UAE 142 Syria 103 Tajikistan 84 Hong Kong 1
1 Oman 152 Qatar 153 Turkmenistan 64 Mongolia 0
1 Iran 152 Bahrain 103 Myanmar 54 Macau 3
1 Iraq 182 Afghanistan 103 Palestine 74 Timor-Leste 0
1 Korea Rep. 182 Philippines 93 Kyrgyz Republic 74 Indonesia 1
1 Australia 162 Jordan 103 Thailand 64 Brunei 1
1 Japan 182 Uzbekistan 93 India 94 Chinese Taipei 0
1 China PR 182 Vietnam 103 Kuwait 44 Bhutan 3
Qualifying Rounds
75 Panama 1876 El Salvador 977 Curaçao 778 Nicaragua 1
1 Costa Rica 182 Suriname 63 Antigua & Barbuda 64 Honduras 6
1 Jamaica 132 Haiti 123 Trinidad & Tobago 64 Montserrat 2
1 Japan 202 UAE 183 Uzbekistan 154 Jordan 135 Korea DPR 106 Qatar 8
1 Korea Rep. 252 Australia 183 China PR 174 Bahrain 125 Oman 66 Philippines 6
1 Iraq 222 Iran 223 Saudi Arabia 174 Syria 175 Vietnam 76 Afghanistan 1
Qualifying Rounds
164 Uzbekistan 8165 Jordan 4166 Saudi Arabia 4
1 China PR 102 Syria 53 Bahrain 1
UEFA Playoffs

Netherlands def.

Wales

Netherlands def.

Hungary

Germany def.

Rep. of Ireland

Germany def.

Scotland

Sweden def.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Sweden def.

Bulgaria

Portugal def.

North Macedonia

Kosovo def.

Portugal
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Tunisia def.

Egypt

Congo DR def.

Ghana

Tunisia def.

Congo DR

Syria def.

Jordan
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

Vanuatu
Intercontinental Playoffs

El Salvador def.

Vanuatu

Haiti def.

Syria

El Salvador def.

Ecuador

Tunisia def.

Haiti
Continental Competition Winners

Italy def.

Sweden

Burkina Faso def.

Algeria

Jamaica def.

USA

Japan def.

Iraq

Argentina def.

Uruguay