2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
England 1874
Brazil 1862
Argentina 1855
Belgium 1835
France 1822
Spain 1733
Croatia 1729
Netherlands 1706
Morocco 1698
Colombia 1692
Uruguay 1687
Portugal 1674
Pot 2 & ranking points
Sweden 1668
Germany 1666
Switzerland 1662
Denmark 1634
Senegal 1632
Mexico 1629
USA 1611
Serbia 1583
Iran 1572
Egypt 1561
Korea Rep. 1559
Ecuador 1554
Pot 3 & ranking points
Scotland 1552
Nigeria 1546
Japan 1543
Ukraine 1540
Peru 1515
Saudi Arabia 1508
Costa Rica 1502
Australia 1502
Mali 1494
Cameroon 1468
Côte d'Ivoire 1452
Iceland 1441
Pot 4 & ranking points
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1433
Canada 1426
UAE 1424
Panama 1416
Guinea 1401
South Africa 1382
China PR 1327
El Salvador 1322
Kyrgyz Republic 1322
Haiti 1285
Libya 1234
American Samoa 925
Portugal def.
Australia
Morocco def.
England
Ecuador def.
Brazil
Belgium def.
Switzerland
Colombia def.
Japan
Ukraine def.
Senegal
Spain def.
Denmark
Costa Rica def.
Argentina
France def.
Germany
Sweden def.
Panama
Croatia def.
Netherlands
Uruguay def.
Iran
Peru def.
Egypt
USA def.
Mali
Saudi Arabia def.
Serbia
China PR def.
Korea Rep.
Morocco def.
Portugal
Ecuador def.
Belgium
Ukraine def.
Colombia
Spain def.
Costa Rica
France def.
Sweden
Uruguay def.
Croatia
Peru def.
USA
Saudi Arabia def.
China PR
Morocco def.
Ecuador
Spain def.
Ukraine
Uruguay def.
France
Peru def.
Saudi Arabia
Spain def.
Morocco
Peru def.
Uruguay
Spain def.
Peru
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
Simulate Again!
Qualifying Rounds
1 Belgium 182 Finland 73 Austria 74 Latvia 3
1 Scotland 152 Italy 153 Albania 64 Faroe Islands 0
1 Spain 182 Hungary 93 Georgia 54 Armenia 2
1 Denmark 182 Bosnia & Herzegovina 83 Rep. of Ireland 74 Israel 1
1 France 122 Czechia 123 Greece 124 Lithuania 0
1 Switzerland 132 Norway 103 North Macedonia 74 Luxembourg 4
1 Sweden 242 Ukraine 163 Northern Ireland 134 Estonia 65 Liechtenstein 0
1 Iceland 212 Netherlands 193 Belarus 104 Turkey 75 Gibraltar 1
1 Croatia 212 Wales 183 Slovakia 154 Kosovo 65 Moldova 0
1 England 242 Poland 123 Bulgaria 104 Cyprus 75 Malta 6
1 Serbia 192 Portugal 163 Montenegro 144 Azerbaijan 85 San Marino 0
1 Germany 222 Romania 163 Kazakhstan 114 Slovenia 85 Andorra 0
1 New Zealand 102 American Samoa 63 New Caledonia 64 Tahiti 25 Tonga 2
1 Fiji 102 Papua New Guinea 93 Samoa 64 Vanuatu 35 Solomon Islands 1
1 Argentina 432 Brazil 423 Colombia 404 Uruguay 325 Ecuador 316 Peru 207 Chile 198 Venezuela 129 Paraguay 910 Bolivia 7
1 Curaçao 192 Panama 163 Guyana 154 Barbados 65 Aruba 3
1 Trinidad & Tobago 192 Haiti 133 Cayman Islands 114 Grenada 65 Cuba 6
1 Costa Rica 242 Turks & Caicos Isl. 113 Suriname 94 Belize 85 Nicaragua 5
1 Honduras 242 Antigua & Barbuda 113 Dominica 94 Montserrat 65 Dominican Republic 5
1 St. Kitts and Nevis 162 El Salvador 153 Bahamas 144 Puerto Rico 105 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 2
1 Guatemala 172 St. Lucia 153 Jamaica 144 Bermuda 85 US Virgin Isl. 16 Mexico 07 Canada 08 USA 0
1 South Africa 252 Algeria 253 Tanzania 184 Guinea-Bissau 105 Liberia 96 Seychelles 1
1 Mali 302 Mauritania 183 Cabo Verde 134 Burundi 125 Djibouti 76 Zimbabwe 4
1 Nigeria 282 Burkina Faso 173 Congo 164 Comoros 145 Eswatini 86 Eritrea 1
1 Cameroon 202 Ghana 193 Sudan 164 Kenya 155 Gambia 76 Central African Republic 6
1 Egypt 272 Equatorial Guinea 193 Uganda 194 Lesotho 115 Niger 86 São Tomé & Príncipe 3
1 Libya 242 Tunisia 223 Gabon 214 Sierra Leone 155 Ethiopia 76 Somalia 0
1 Côte d'Ivoire 232 Guinea 233 Mozambique 184 Namibia 125 Botswana 46 Mauritius 4
1 Senegal 302 Congo DR 173 Rwanda 154 Malawi 95 Madagascar 76 South Sudan 6
1 Morocco 302 Zambia 223 Togo 124 Chad 95 Angola 86 Benin 5
1 Korea Rep. 182 Afghanistan 73 Vietnam 54 Bangladesh 4
1 UAE 162 Lebanon 103 Bhutan 74 Hong Kong 1
1 Iran 182 Syria 93 Korea DPR 64 Singapore 3
1 Australia 142 Thailand 103 Bahrain 104 Pakistan 0
1 Oman 122 Iraq 113 Turkmenistan 104 Mongolia 0
1 Qatar 162 India 93 Jordan 44 Chinese Taipei 4
1 Japan 182 Tajikistan 103 Palestine 54 Nepal 1
1 Kyrgyz Republic 162 China PR 93 Macau 44 Kuwait 4
1 Saudi Arabia 142 Philippines 103 Uzbekistan 84 Brunei 1
Qualifying Rounds
75 Haiti 1376 Honduras 1377 St. Lucia 378 Guatemala 3
1 Costa Rica 152 Trinidad & Tobago 103 Curaçao 84 Turks & Caicos Isl. 1
1 Panama 152 El Salvador 113 Antigua & Barbuda 44 St. Kitts and Nevis 4
1 Iran 202 Australia 183 Iraq 164 Oman 155 Thailand 126 Afghanistan 1
1 Korea Rep. 262 Kyrgyz Republic 193 UAE 184 Tajikistan 125 Qatar 56 India 4
1 Japan 212 Saudi Arabia 213 Lebanon 144 China PR 115 Philippines 96 Syria 6
Qualifying Rounds
164 UAE 7165 Tajikistan 6166 Oman 4
1 China PR 102 Lebanon 73 Iraq 0
UEFA Playoffs
Netherlands def.
Wales
Netherlands def.
Finland
Ukraine def.
Poland
Ukraine def.
Italy
Portugal def.
Norway
Portugal def.
Hungary
Czechia def.
Romania
Bosnia & Herzegovina def.
Czechia
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Algeria def.
Zambia
Guinea def.
Tunisia
Guinea def.
Algeria
Tajikistan def.
Lebanon
OFC Final
American Samoa def.
Papua New Guinea
Intercontinental Playoffs
Tajikistan def.
Papua New Guinea
El Salvador def.
Honduras
Guinea def.
Tajikistan
El Salvador def.
Chile
Continental Competition Winners
England def.
Sweden
Egypt def.
Nigeria
Mexico def.
Panama
Saudi Arabia def.
Australia
Uruguay def.
Brazil