2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
Brazil 1900
Argentina 1852
England 1799
Belgium 1794
Italy 1790
France 1785
Croatia 1767
Netherlands 1737
Portugal 1730
Spain 1688
Senegal 1686
USA 1680
Pot 2 & ranking points
Morocco 1670
Germany 1643
Wales 1637
Mexico 1632
Colombia 1597
Australia 1596
Poland 1593
Peru 1591
Denmark 1589
Uruguay 1586
Japan 1569
Serbia 1549
Pot 3 & ranking points
Cameroon 1548
Iran 1541
Egypt 1541
Tunisia 1535
Korea Rep. 1533
Ukraine 1527
Turkey 1509
Algeria 1507
Costa Rica 1497
Qatar 1481
Paraguay 1471
Greece 1471
Pot 4 & ranking points
Panama 1457
Burkina Faso 1453
Canada 1446
Jamaica 1444
Mali 1419
UAE 1418
Honduras 1376
China PR 1369
Haiti 1330
Gabon 1302
India 1284
New Zealand 1257
Belgium def.
Paraguay
Brazil def.
Italy
Iran def.
Jamaica
Algeria def.
Burkina Faso
Denmark def.
Japan
Poland def.
Turkey
England def.
Korea Rep.
Netherlands def.
Colombia
Australia def.
Uruguay
Portugal def.
Senegal
Croatia def.
Peru
Argentina def.
China PR
France def.
New Zealand
Mexico def.
Tunisia
Ukraine def.
Egypt
USA def.
Honduras
Belgium def.
Brazil
Algeria def.
Iran
Poland def.
Denmark
England def.
Netherlands
Portugal def.
Australia
Argentina def.
Croatia
France def.
Mexico
Ukraine def.
USA
Algeria def.
Belgium
England def.
Poland
Portugal def.
Argentina
France def.
Ukraine
England def.
Algeria
France def.
Portugal
France def.
England
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Turkey 162 Spain 133 Slovenia 44 Estonia 1
1 Denmark 142 Greece 113 Austria 84 Luxembourg 0
1 Netherlands 182 Belarus 73 Rep. of Ireland 54 Montenegro 3
1 Germany 152 Hungary 103 Bosnia & Herzegovina 84 Israel 1
1 France 152 Romania 133 Northern Ireland 64 Latvia 1
1 England 182 Ukraine 93 Kazakhstan 44 North Macedonia 4
1 Croatia 222 Georgia 133 Scotland 124 Lithuania 75 Malta 3
1 Wales 222 Switzerland 163 Albania 124 Armenia 95 Gibraltar 0
1 Serbia 192 Iceland 173 Sweden 154 Cyprus 55 Moldova 1
1 Italy 212 Czechia 183 Bulgaria 104 Kosovo 55 Andorra 4
1 Portugal 222 Slovakia 143 Norway 104 Faroe Islands 105 Liechtenstein 1
1 Belgium 172 Poland 143 Finland 134 Azerbaijan 105 San Marino 3
1 Fiji 102 Papua New Guinea 83 Vanuatu 54 Tonga 35 Solomon Islands 1
1 New Zealand 122 Samoa 73 Tahiti 54 New Caledonia 25 American Samoa 1
1 Brazil 472 Argentina 423 Peru 314 Colombia 275 Uruguay 266 Paraguay 257 Chile 258 Ecuador 179 Venezuela 910 Bolivia 4
1 Panama 192 Barbados 133 Antigua & Barbuda 124 Puerto Rico 115 Aruba 3
1 Costa Rica 202 Nicaragua 173 Guyana 84 British Virgin Isl. 65 St. Lucia 4
1 Curaçao 242 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 113 Dominica 104 Cuba 85 Suriname 3
1 Jamaica 242 Guatemala 133 Montserrat 124 St. Kitts and Nevis 105 Anguilla 0
1 Haiti 192 El Salvador 183 Grenada 104 Bermuda 75 Bahamas 3
1 Honduras 192 Cayman Islands 133 Trinidad & Tobago 114 Dominican Republic 105 Belize 36 Mexico 07 Canada 08 USA 0
1 Mali 192 Kenya 193 Nigeria 184 Central African Republic 125 Mozambique 86 Gambia 5
1 Algeria 242 Ghana 223 Sierra Leone 134 Namibia 135 Lesotho 96 Chad 5
1 Egypt 302 Cabo Verde 163 Niger 154 Burundi 115 Togo 106 Somalia 3
1 Tunisia 252 South Africa 213 Benin 194 Angola 95 Eswatini 76 Mauritius 7
1 Morocco 282 Guinea 203 Equatorial Guinea 134 Ethiopia 115 Sudan 86 Eritrea 6
1 Burkina Faso 232 Zambia 223 Libya 154 Madagascar 155 Rwanda 66 Seychelles 3
1 Senegal 302 Congo DR 193 Tanzania 164 Congo 115 Zimbabwe 56 South Sudan 3
1 Gabon 232 Côte d'Ivoire 223 Mauritania 154 Liberia 115 Comoros 106 Djibouti 4
1 Cameroon 302 Guinea-Bissau 163 Botswana 154 Uganda 135 Malawi 106 São Tomé & Príncipe 4
1 Australia 182 Jordan 93 Philippines 74 Brunei 1
1 China PR 152 Uzbekistan 153 Turkmenistan 44 Sri Lanka 1
1 UAE 182 Hong Kong 123 Bahrain 64 Chinese Taipei 0
1 Japan 152 India 123 Vietnam 64 Mongolia 3
1 Iran 162 Korea DPR 83 Oman 74 Bangladesh 1
1 Thailand 152 Saudi Arabia 133 Kyrgyz Republic 74 Laos 0
1 Korea Rep. 152 Tajikistan 73 Palestine 74 Maldives 6
1 Iraq 152 Kuwait 93 Syria 94 Indonesia 3
1 Qatar 182 Lebanon 93 Pakistan 64 Myanmar 3
Qualifying Rounds
75 Jamaica 1676 Honduras 1377 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 478 Nicaragua 1
1 Panama 162 Curaçao 73 Guatemala 74 Barbados 4
1 Costa Rica 142 Haiti 103 El Salvador 84 Cayman Islands 0
1 UAE 222 Iran 193 Qatar 174 India 175 Korea DPR 106 Kuwait 1
1 Australia 282 China PR 173 Jordan 154 Lebanon 95 Saudi Arabia 96 Tajikistan 6
1 Korea Rep. 272 Japan 233 Iraq 114 Uzbekistan 105 Thailand 86 Hong Kong 5
Qualifying Rounds
164 Qatar 12165 Uzbekistan 3166 Lebanon 3
1 India 72 Iraq 73 Jordan 3
UEFA Playoffs
Switzerland def.
Iceland
Spain def.
Switzerland
Czechia def.
Georgia
Greece def.
Czechia
Ukraine def.
Slovakia
Ukraine def.
Belarus
Poland def.
Romania
Poland def.
Hungary
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Zambia def.
South Africa
Ghana def.
Côte d'Ivoire
Zambia def.
Ghana
Iraq def.
Uzbekistan
OFC Final
New Zealand def.
Fiji
Intercontinental Playoffs
Haiti def.
Fiji
Honduras def.
Zambia
Haiti def.
Iraq
Honduras def.
Chile
Continental Competition Winners
Italy def.
Croatia
Senegal def.
Cameroon
Panama def.
Mexico
Australia def.
Iraq
USA def.
Brazil