2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Brazil 1911

Argentina 1885

France 1877

Belgium 1829

England 1792

Portugal 1781

Croatia 1779

Netherlands 1729

Italy 1712

Morocco 1687

Spain 1668

Germany 1661
Pot 2 & ranking points

Mexico 1658

Switzerland 1656

USA 1649

Iran 1648

Denmark 1636

Colombia 1602

Senegal 1596

Uruguay 1596

Sweden 1582

Wales 1562

Tunisia 1551

Japan 1543
Pot 3 & ranking points

Costa Rica 1543

Austria 1540

Algeria 1540

Korea Rep. 1522

Australia 1507

Qatar 1500

Chile 1493

Paraguay 1480

Burkina Faso 1478

Saudi Arabia 1467

Ecuador 1466

Mali 1449
Pot 4 & ranking points

Canada 1443

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1438

Oman 1410

Cabo Verde 1404

Jamaica 1396

Guinea 1387

Haiti 1357

Bahrain 1324

Georgia 1316

Equatorial Guinea 1288

Mauritania 1278

New Zealand 1224

Brazil def.

Denmark

Switzerland def.

Uruguay

Argentina def.

Guinea

Tunisia def.

Italy

France def.

Burkina Faso

England def.

Germany

Iran def.

Netherlands

Sweden def.

Spain

Colombia def.

Chile

USA def.

Costa Rica

Portugal def.

Ecuador

Mexico def.

Paraguay

Japan def.

Wales

Oman def.

Mali

Belgium def.

Senegal

Croatia def.

Canada

Brazil def.

Switzerland

Argentina def.

Tunisia

France def.

England

Sweden def.

Iran

Colombia def.

USA

Portugal def.

Mexico

Oman def.

Japan

Belgium def.

Croatia

Argentina def.

Brazil

France def.

Sweden

Colombia def.

Portugal

Belgium def.

Oman

Argentina def.

France

Belgium def.

Colombia

Belgium def.

Argentina
This simulates a 48-team World Cup. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and change as a result of playing qualification rounds, and will be updated soon. Friendlies and national championships/interim games are not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
To simualate ELO changes, 10 randomly scheduled friendlies and knockout rounds of all continental competitions before 2026 have been simulated in addition to qualifying (Qatar is placed in the CONCACAF cup, and CONCACAF teams are invited to the CONMEBOL tournament.)
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Switzerland 142 Bosnia & Herzegovina 93 Estonia 44 Ukraine 4
1 Croatia 182 Georgia 73 Turkey 74 Israel 3
1 Wales 162 Netherlands 123 Bulgaria 54 Lithuania 1
1 Denmark 162 Austria 133 North Macedonia 64 Faroe Islands 0
1 Italy 182 Slovakia 83 Czechia 54 Azerbaijan 3
1 Portugal 132 Hungary 123 Greece 104 Kazakhstan 0
1 Belgium 242 Scotland 183 Slovenia 94 Cyprus 65 Malta 3
1 France 242 Romania 123 Luxembourg 94 Iceland 95 Andorra 6
1 England 222 Serbia 153 Montenegro 124 Latvia 75 Liechtenstein 1
1 Spain 162 Poland 153 Finland 144 Armenia 85 Moldova 4
1 Germany 222 Albania 163 Norway 114 Kosovo 65 San Marino 3
1 Sweden 202 Rep. of Ireland 163 Northern Ireland 134 Belarus 75 Gibraltar 1
1 Samoa 102 New Zealand 93 New Caledonia 34 Vanuatu 25 Fiji 2
1 Papua New Guinea 102 Tahiti 73 Tonga 64 Solomon Islands 45 American Samoa 1
1 Brazil 472 Argentina 453 Paraguay 264 Colombia 265 Uruguay 256 Ecuador 217 Chile 208 Venezuela 189 Bolivia 1210 Peru 11
1 Haiti 222 Curaçao 133 Grenada 104 Barbados 75 Anguilla 3
1 Panama 222 Cuba 183 Trinidad & Tobago 124 Montserrat 75 Dominica 0
1 El Salvador 202 Guyana 133 Antigua & Barbuda 134 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 85 Cayman Islands 3
1 Honduras 192 Guatemala 163 Belize 124 British Virgin Isl. 65 St. Lucia 6
1 Costa Rica 222 Suriname 153 St. Kitts and Nevis 114 Aruba 75 Puerto Rico 2
1 Jamaica 212 Nicaragua 133 Bermuda 114 Dominican Republic 105 Bahamas 36 Canada 07 USA 08 Mexico 0
1 Cabo Verde 282 Côte d'Ivoire 193 Togo 144 South Sudan 105 Namibia 106 Liberia 6
1 Algeria 252 Libya 193 Central African Republic 184 Botswana 95 Uganda 86 Ethiopia 8
1 Senegal 252 Ghana 233 Gambia 114 Congo 115 Sierra Leone 106 Seychelles 4
1 Tunisia 272 Eswatini 193 Gabon 164 Malawi 125 Benin 126 Somalia 3
1 Guinea 232 Cameroon 223 Guinea-Bissau 164 Angola 155 Comoros 106 Chad 0
1 Mauritania 242 Nigeria 213 Congo DR 194 Sudan 125 Lesotho 76 São Tomé & Príncipe 2
1 Equatorial Guinea 232 Egypt 223 Zimbabwe 144 Zambia 135 Burundi 86 Mauritius 3
1 Burkina Faso 282 Mali 213 Kenya 134 Tanzania 135 Niger 116 Eritrea 1
1 Morocco 282 South Africa 183 Rwanda 144 Madagascar 145 Mozambique 76 Djibouti 3
1 Philippines 132 Oman 113 China PR 64 Cambodia 2
1 Qatar 162 Lebanon 103 Kuwait 74 Nepal 1
1 Australia 122 Jordan 123 Singapore 94 India 3
1 UAE 162 Turkmenistan 73 Chinese Taipei 64 Palestine 5
1 Uzbekistan 122 Saudi Arabia 123 Afghanistan 84 Timor-Leste 2
1 Korea Rep. 182 Bahrain 103 Thailand 54 Indonesia 1
1 Iraq 182 Tajikistan 93 Kyrgyz Republic 74 Hong Kong 1
1 Iran 182 Korea DPR 103 Sri Lanka 44 Vietnam 2
1 Japan 182 Syria 123 Yemen 64 Brunei 0
Qualifying Rounds
75 Costa Rica 1676 Honduras 1277 Suriname 778 Guyana 0
1 Haiti 152 Panama 123 Curaçao 74 Nicaragua 1
1 Jamaica 112 El Salvador 103 Cuba 84 Guatemala 4
1 Australia 222 Japan 193 Iraq 194 Uzbekistan 115 Lebanon 86 Philippines 5
1 Oman 262 Korea Rep. 193 Saudi Arabia 184 Korea DPR 135 Turkmenistan 76 Jordan 3
1 Iran 282 Qatar 223 Bahrain 144 UAE 105 Tajikistan 76 Syria 1
Qualifying Rounds
164 Saudi Arabia 9165 UAE 6166 Uzbekistan 3
1 Bahrain 82 Iraq 63 Korea DPR 1
UEFA Playoffs

Serbia def.

Romania

Bosnia & Herzegovina def.

Serbia

Poland def.

Scotland

Georgia def.

Poland

Hungary def.

Albania

Netherlands def.

Hungary

Rep. of Ireland def.

Slovakia

Austria def.

Rep. of Ireland
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Mali def.

Ghana

Cameroon def.

Egypt

Mali def.

Cameroon

UAE def.

Iraq
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

Samoa
Intercontinental Playoffs

Honduras def.

Samoa

UAE def.

Panama

Mali def.

Honduras

Chile def.

UAE
Continental Competition Winners

Portugal def.

France

Algeria def.

Guinea

Mexico def.

Costa Rica

Iran def.

Saudi Arabia

Brazil def.

USA