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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 26 March 2025)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1636
Mexico 1631
Canada 1520
France 1898
Spain 1865
Argentina 1862
England 1804
Brazil 1767
Portugal 1764
Netherlands 1760
Italy 1731
Belgium 1729
Pot 2 & ranking points
Uruguay 1728
Colombia 1716
Germany 1701
Morocco 1691
Senegal 1670
Iran 1665
Croatia 1664
Japan 1658
Switzerland 1655
Denmark 1640
Ukraine 1597
Korea Rep. 1574
Pot 3 & ranking points
Poland 1561
Sweden 1543
Ecuador 1536
Egypt 1529
Australia 1508
Costa Rica 1500
Czechia 1494
Cameroon 1489
Côte d'Ivoire 1483
Algeria 1479
Congo DR 1469
Paraguay 1469
Pot 4 & ranking points
Tunisia 1462
Iraq 1453
South Africa 1450
Jamaica 1434
Saudi Arabia 1434
Uzbekistan 1432
UAE 1397
Jordan 1369
Honduras 1354
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1339
Ghana 1339
New Zealand 1288
Group 1
1England 9
3Ecuador 4
2Germany 4
4South Africa 0
Avg. Ranking 1623
Group 2
1Netherlands 7
3Poland 4
2Korea Rep. 3
4Ghana 3
Avg. Ranking 1558
Group 3
4Jamaica 7
1Spain 4
3Sweden 3
2Uruguay 3
Avg. Ranking 1642
Group 4
1Portugal 7
3Costa Rica 4
4Iraq 2
2Morocco 2
Avg. Ranking 1602
Group 5
2Colombia 9
1USA 6
4Jordan 3
3Algeria 0
Avg. Ranking 1550
Group 6
3Côte d'Ivoire 6
2Japan 6
1Belgium 6
4Honduras 0
Avg. Ranking 1556
Group 7
1France 9
2Switzerland 4
4Uzbekistan 2
3Paraguay 1
Avg. Ranking 1614
Group 8
1Italy 9
2Denmark 3
4UAE 3
3Egypt 3
Avg. Ranking 1574
Group 9
1Argentina 9
2Ukraine 6
3Congo DR 1
4Saudi Arabia 1
Avg. Ranking 1591
Group 10
2Croatia 7
4Tunisia 5
1Canada 3
3Czechia 1
Avg. Ranking 1535
Group 11
2Senegal 9
1Brazil 4
3Australia 2
4Bosnia & Herzegovina 1
Avg. Ranking 1571
Group 12
1Mexico 7
3Cameroon 6
2Iran 4
4New Zealand 0
Avg. Ranking 1518
Poland def. Cameroon
Tunisia def. Costa Rica
Colombia def. Belgium
France def. Egypt
Brazil def. Germany
Ukraine def. Spain
Côte d'Ivoire def. USA
Italy def. Switzerland
Argentina def. Japan
Croatia def. Ecuador
Senegal def. Iran
Mexico def. Canada
Portugal def. Ghana
Uruguay def. Jamaica
Netherlands def. Jordan
Denmark def. England
Tunisia def. Poland
France def. Colombia
Ukraine def. Brazil
Côte d'Ivoire def. Italy
Argentina def. Croatia
Mexico def. Senegal
Portugal def. Uruguay
Denmark def. Netherlands
France def. Tunisia
Ukraine def. Côte d'Ivoire
Argentina def. Mexico
Portugal def. Denmark
France def. Ukraine
Argentina def. Portugal
France def. Argentina
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.

European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Czechia 19
2 Croatia 18
3 Montenegro 13
4 Gibraltar 7
5 Faroe Islands 1
1 England 19
2 Albania 16
3 Serbia 15
4 Latvia 6
5 Andorra 3
1 Germany 15
2 Northern Ireland 10
3 Slovakia 6
4 Luxembourg 4
1 Italy 21
2 Israel 16
3 Norway 15
4 Moldova 4
5 Estonia 3
1 Romania 16
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 16
3 Austria 15
4 Cyprus 7
5 San Marino 3
1 Netherlands 22
2 Poland 17
3 Finland 11
4 Lithuania 5
5 Malta 1
1 Portugal 15
2 Rep. of Ireland 10
3 Hungary 10
4 Armenia 0
1 Spain 18
2 Türkiye 8
3 Georgia 4
4 Bulgaria 3
1 France 18
2 Ukraine 10
3 Iceland 4
4 Azerbaijan 3
1 Denmark 18
2 Scotland 7
3 Belarus 5
4 Greece 4
1 Switzerland 14
2 Sweden 9
3 Slovenia 7
4 Kosovo 3
1 Belgium 17
2 North Macedonia 15
3 Wales 15
4 Kazakhstan 8
5 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 38
2 Uruguay 36
3 Brazil 29
4 Ecuador 27
5 Paraguay 27
6 Colombia 27
7 Bolivia 21
8 Venezuela 18
9 Peru 13
10 Chile 10
1 Suriname 10
2 El Salvador 8
3 Puerto Rico 5
4 St Vincent & the Grenadines 4
5 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 10
2 Guatemala 8
3 Dominican Republic 5
4 Dominica 2
5 British Virgin Isl. 1
1 Panama 10
2 Guyana 9
3 Nicaragua 7
4 Montserrat 1
5 Belize 1
1 Curaçao 10
2 Haiti 10
3 Barbados 6
4 St Lucia 1
5 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 Trinidad & Tobago 7
3 St Kitts & Nevis 6
4 Grenada 2
5 Bahamas 1
1 Honduras 12
2 Bermuda 7
3 Cuba 6
4 Cayman Islands 3
5 Antigua & Barbuda 1
1 Ghana 25
2 Mali 19
3 Comoros 18
4 Madagascar 14
5 Central African Republic 9
6 Chad 0
1 Tunisia 26
2 Namibia 19
3 Liberia 14
4 Equatorial Guinea 11
5 Malawi 11
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 3
1 Algeria 23
2 Mozambique 18
3 Uganda 15
4 Guinea 14
5 Botswana 13
6 Somalia 4
1 Côte d'Ivoire 28
2 Gabon 24
3 Burundi 14
4 Kenya 10
5 Gambia 9
6 Seychelles 0
1 Morocco 18
2 Niger 10
3 Tanzania 8
4 Zambia 6
5 Congo 4
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 24
2 Cabo Verde 20
3 Libya 15
4 Mauritius 8
5 Angola 8
6 Eswatini 6
1 South Africa 21
2 Benin 15
3 Nigeria 14
4 Rwanda 13
5 Zimbabwe 9
6 Lesotho 6
1 Congo DR 23
2 Senegal 22
3 Sudan 13
4 Mauritania 11
5 South Sudan 6
6 Togo 5
1 Egypt 26
2 Burkina Faso 21
3 Guinea-Bissau 15
4 Sierra Leone 12
5 Ethiopia 6
6 Djibouti 2
1 Japan 26
2 Saudi Arabia 16
3 Australia 13
4 Indonesia 10
5 China PR 8
6 Bahrain 7
1 Korea Rep. 19
2 Iraq 18
3 Jordan 14
4 Oman 12
5 Palestine 10
6 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 26
2 Uzbekistan 21
3 UAE 14
4 Qatar 11
5 Kyrgyz Republic 10
6 Korea DPR 2
Qualifying Rounds
1 Costa Rica 16
2 Suriname 8
3 El Salvador 6
4 Trinidad & Tobago 2
1 Jamaica 16
2 Haiti 8
3 Curaçao 8
4 Guyana 1
1 Honduras 11
2 Guatemala 10
3 Panama 10
4 Bermuda 2
1 UAE 7
2 Qatar 6
3 Oman 4
1 Australia 9
2 Jordan 5
3 Indonesia 2
UEFA Playoffs
Croatia def. San Marino
Romania def. Scotland
Croatia def. Romania
Ukraine def. Moldova
Hungary def. Norway
Ukraine def. Hungary
Türkiye def. Israel
Poland def. North Macedonia
Poland def. Türkiye
Wales def. Northern Ireland
Sweden def. Albania
Sweden def. Wales
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Gabon def. Cabo Verde
Senegal def. Burkina Faso
Senegal def. Gabon
Jordan def. Qatar
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
New Caledonia def. Guatemala
Bolivia def. Haiti
Jordan def. New Caledonia
Senegal def. Bolivia