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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 13 December 2024)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1645
Mexico 1631
Canada 1506
Spain 1872
Argentina 1865
France 1862
Portugal 1800
England 1784
Belgium 1765
Netherlands 1754
Morocco 1747
Italy 1746
Pot 2 & ranking points
Croatia 1725
Brazil 1708
Uruguay 1705
Colombia 1703
Germany 1688
Iran 1676
Japan 1667
Senegal 1648
Switzerland 1634
Denmark 1622
Korea Rep. 1619
Austria 1571
Pot 3 & ranking points
Egypt 1568
Serbia 1557
Peru 1552
Australia 1549
Sweden 1540
Ecuador 1535
Cameroon 1527
Algeria 1526
Panama 1519
Poland 1518
Greece 1516
Costa Rica 1490
Pot 4 & ranking points
Tunisia 1486
Qatar 1483
South Africa 1465
Paraguay 1457
Jamaica 1440
Uzbekistan 1436
UAE 1416
Iraq 1415
Ghana 1358
China PR 1321
New Zealand 1281
Burundi 1161
Group 1
2Switzerland 6
1USA 6
3Sweden 4
4Tunisia 1
Avg. Ranking 1576
Group 2
2Croatia 9
1Mexico 4
3Peru 2
4UAE 1
Avg. Ranking 1581
Group 3
1Canada 9
3Poland 6
2Korea Rep. 3
4Burundi 0
Avg. Ranking 1451
Group 4
3Greece 6
2Brazil 6
1Belgium 6
4South Africa 0
Avg. Ranking 1614
Group 5
3Egypt 7
1Netherlands 4
2Japan 3
4New Zealand 1
Avg. Ranking 1567
Group 6
2Senegal 7
4Paraguay 6
3Australia 3
1Spain 1
Avg. Ranking 1632
Group 7
3Panama 9
2Uruguay 3
4Iraq 3
1Italy 3
Avg. Ranking 1596
Group 8
1France 9
4China PR 4
3Algeria 3
2Austria 1
Avg. Ranking 1570
Group 9
1Morocco 7
2Colombia 6
3Serbia 3
4Jamaica 1
Avg. Ranking 1612
Group 10
1Argentina 9
3Cameroon 4
4Uzbekistan 3
2Denmark 1
Avg. Ranking 1612
Group 11
4Ghana 6
1Portugal 6
3Ecuador 3
2Iran 3
Avg. Ranking 1592
Group 12
1England 7
2Germany 6
3Costa Rica 2
4Qatar 1
Avg. Ranking 1611
Germany def. Mexico
Brazil def. Cameroon
Egypt def. Paraguay
China PR def. Panama
USA def. Ghana
Poland def. Colombia
Senegal def. Netherlands
France def. Iraq
Morocco def. Belgium
Argentina def. Sweden
Portugal def. Algeria
England def. Japan
Serbia def. Greece
Canada def. Korea Rep.
Croatia def. Australia
Switzerland def. Uruguay
Brazil def. Germany
Egypt def. China PR
USA def. Poland
France def. Senegal
Morocco def. Argentina
England def. Portugal
Serbia def. Canada
Croatia def. Switzerland
Egypt def. Brazil
France def. USA
England def. Morocco
Serbia def. Croatia
France def. Egypt
England def. Serbia
England def. France
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 13 December 2024

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 24
2 Czechia 16
3 Montenegro 13
4 Faroe Islands 3
5 Gibraltar 3
1 England 19
2 Serbia 19
3 Albania 15
4 Latvia 3
5 Andorra 3
1 Belgium 24
2 Wales 13
3 North Macedonia 13
4 Kazakhstan 6
5 Liechtenstein 3
1 Germany 21
2 Norway 17
3 Israel 11
4 Estonia 6
5 Moldova 1
1 Austria 18
2 Romania 16
3 Cyprus 13
4 Bosnia & Herzegovina 10
5 San Marino 1
1 Spain 24
2 Poland 16
3 Finland 10
4 Malta 5
5 Lithuania 3
1 Portugal 18
2 Rep. of Ireland 8
3 Armenia 4
4 Hungary 4
1 Türkiye 11
2 Netherlands 11
3 Bulgaria 6
4 Georgia 6
1 France 13
2 Ukraine 11
3 Iceland 7
4 Azerbaijan 3
1 Denmark 13
2 Greece 11
3 Scotland 8
4 Belarus 1
1 Switzerland 16
2 Sweden 8
3 Slovenia 7
4 Kosovo 3
1 Italy 14
2 Slovakia 10
3 Northern Ireland 5
4 Luxembourg 4
1 Samoa 0
2 Tonga 0
3 Tahiti 0
4 American Samoa 0
5 New Caledonia 0
6 New Zealand 0
7 Vanuatu 0
8 Fiji 0
9 Solomon Islands 0
10 Papua New Guinea 0
1 Argentina 38
2 Uruguay 33
3 Colombia 31
4 Ecuador 27
5 Brazil 23
6 Peru 22
7 Paraguay 21
8 Venezuela 19
9 Bolivia 19
10 Chile 15
1 Puerto Rico 10
2 El Salvador 10
3 Suriname 6
4 St Vincent & the Grenadines 3
5 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 12
2 Guatemala 9
3 Dominican Republic 6
4 Dominica 3
5 British Virgin Isl. 0
1 Panama 12
2 Nicaragua 9
3 Montserrat 3
4 Guyana 3
5 Belize 3
1 Curaçao 10
2 Haiti 10
3 Barbados 6
4 Aruba 1
5 St Lucia 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 Trinidad & Tobago 7
3 St Kitts & Nevis 6
4 Grenada 4
5 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 12
2 Cuba 7
3 Bermuda 4
4 Cayman Islands 3
5 Antigua & Barbuda 2
1 Ghana 25
2 Mali 20
3 Comoros 19
4 Madagascar 9
5 Central African Republic 7
6 Chad 4
1 Tunisia 28
2 Namibia 21
3 Equatorial Guinea 13
4 Malawi 12
5 Liberia 11
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 0
1 Algeria 25
2 Guinea 21
3 Mozambique 18
4 Uganda 13
5 Botswana 7
6 Somalia 4
1 Burundi 25
2 Gabon 21
3 Côte d'Ivoire 19
4 Kenya 17
5 Gambia 6
6 Seychelles 0
1 Morocco 21
2 Tanzania 13
3 Congo 9
4 Niger 8
5 Zambia 7
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 26
2 Cabo Verde 19
3 Angola 14
4 Libya 13
5 Mauritius 11
6 Eswatini 1
1 South Africa 25
2 Nigeria 18
3 Benin 17
4 Rwanda 12
5 Lesotho 6
6 Zimbabwe 5
1 Senegal 26
2 Sudan 20
3 Congo DR 18
4 Togo 9
5 Mauritania 4
6 South Sudan 3
1 Egypt 28
2 Guinea-Bissau 18
3 Sierra Leone 15
4 Burkina Faso 15
5 Djibouti 4
6 Ethiopia 3
1 Japan 25
2 China PR 16
3 Australia 14
4 Saudi Arabia 12
5 Indonesia 9
6 Bahrain 6
1 Korea Rep. 26
2 Oman 15
3 Jordan 15
4 Iraq 15
5 Palestine 7
6 Kuwait 4
1 Iran 26
2 Uzbekistan 20
3 UAE 17
4 Qatar 14
5 Kyrgyz Republic 6
6 Korea DPR 2
Qualifying Rounds
1 Costa Rica 15
2 Honduras 15
3 Guatemala 6
4 Cuba 0
1 Jamaica 14
2 El Salvador 10
3 Puerto Rico 7
4 Trinidad & Tobago 1
1 Panama 14
2 Curaçao 8
3 Nicaragua 4
4 Haiti 4
1 Qatar 7
2 UAE 7
3 Oman 2
1 Australia 8
2 Saudi Arabia 7
3 Jordan 1
UEFA Playoffs
Ukraine def. Türkiye
Serbia def. Ukraine
Greece def. Slovakia
Greece def. Norway
North Macedonia def. Rep. of Ireland
Poland def. North Macedonia
Sweden def. Romania
Sweden def. Czechia
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Sudan def. Namibia
Guinea def. Gabon
Sudan def. Guinea
UAE def. Saudi Arabia
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
New Caledonia def. Sudan
Honduras def. El Salvador
UAE def. New Caledonia
Paraguay def. Honduras