2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1645
Mexico 1639
Canada 1519
France 1876
Argentina 1855
Spain 1851
England 1832
Brazil 1780
Portugal 1774
Netherlands 1757
Belgium 1745
Italy 1734
Pot 2 & ranking points
Colombia 1728
Uruguay 1720
Croatia 1708
Germany 1702
Japan 1661
Morocco 1652
Iran 1632
Austria 1613
Korea Rep. 1608
Ukraine 1596
Wales 1570
Ecuador 1551
Pot 3 & ranking points
Australia 1539
Poland 1537
Romania 1519
Tunisia 1517
Cameroon 1501
Mali 1501
Egypt 1500
Venezuela 1499
Qatar 1497
Slovakia 1495
Slovenia 1492
Nigeria 1490
Pot 4 & ranking points
Algeria 1488
Panama 1481
Congo DR 1479
Côte d'Ivoire 1475
Jamaica 1442
Uzbekistan 1426
Iraq 1414
Bolivia 1359
Jordan 1353
El Salvador 1329
Curaçao 1328
New Zealand 1285
Germany def.
Uzbekistan
Colombia def.
Japan
Canada def.
USA
Poland def.
Korea Rep.
Slovenia def.
Iran
Mali def.
Ecuador
Wales def.
Croatia
Algeria def.
Netherlands
Italy def.
Côte d'Ivoire
Argentina def.
Australia
Brazil def.
Uruguay
Belgium def.
Cameroon
Mexico def.
Morocco
Ukraine def.
Portugal
England def.
Nigeria
Spain def.
Jamaica
Germany def.
Colombia
Poland def.
Canada
Mali def.
Slovenia
Algeria def.
Wales
Italy def.
Argentina
Belgium def.
Brazil
Mexico def.
Ukraine
Spain def.
England
Poland def.
Germany
Mali def.
Algeria
Italy def.
Belgium
Mexico def.
Spain
Poland def.
Mali
Italy def.
Mexico
Poland def.
Italy
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 21 November 2024
Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.
Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Italy 152 Sweden 123 Israel 94 Cyprus 0
1 Netherlands 152 Romania 153 Estonia 34 Montenegro 3
1 Croatia 152 Norway 133 Georgia 54 Azerbaijan 1
1 Wales 162 Austria 113 Rep. of Ireland 44 Latvia 3
1 France 182 Albania 93 Serbia 74 Faroe Islands 1
1 Ukraine 152 Northern Ireland 103 Denmark 104 Belarus 0
1 Slovakia 172 Switzerland 163 Kosovo 114 Finland 95 Gibraltar 4
1 Belgium 212 Slovenia 143 Bulgaria 114 Hungary 115 Andorra 0
1 Spain 202 Poland 183 Bosnia & Herzegovina 74 Lithuania 65 Malta 3
1 Germany 192 Luxembourg 133 Scotland 134 Türkiye 125 Liechtenstein 0
1 Portugal 222 Greece 163 North Macedonia 124 Armenia 75 Moldova 1
1 England 242 Kazakhstan 153 Iceland 134 Czechia 75 San Marino 0
1 New Zealand 02 Papua New Guinea 03 Vanuatu 04 Samoa 05 Tonga 06 Solomon Islands 07 New Caledonia 08 Tahiti 09 Fiji 010 American Samoa 0
1 Uruguay 352 Argentina 353 Colombia 334 Brazil 305 Ecuador 296 Bolivia 237 Venezuela 188 Paraguay 179 Peru 1410 Chile 13
1 El Salvador 102 Suriname 73 Puerto Rico 64 St Vincent & the Grenadines 45 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 122 Guatemala 93 Dominica 44 Dominican Republic 45 British Virgin Isl. 0
1 Nicaragua 122 Panama 93 Montserrat 44 Guyana 45 Belize 0
1 Curaçao 102 Haiti 103 Barbados 64 St Lucia 15 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 122 St Kitts & Nevis 73 Trinidad & Tobago 54 Grenada 45 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 122 Cuba 93 Cayman Islands 64 Antigua & Barbuda 15 Bermuda 1
1 Mali 232 Ghana 183 Madagascar 164 Central African Republic 145 Comoros 106 Chad 6
1 Tunisia 282 Liberia 163 Malawi 164 Namibia 135 Equatorial Guinea 126 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Algeria 252 Uganda 223 Guinea 164 Mozambique 155 Botswana 76 Somalia 3
1 Côte d'Ivoire 252 Burundi 173 Kenya 174 Gabon 165 Gambia 76 Seychelles 4
1 Morocco 172 Congo 133 Zambia 134 Tanzania 95 Niger 66 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 262 Cabo Verde 193 Libya 194 Angola 155 Mauritius 56 Eswatini 1
1 Nigeria 192 Rwanda 153 South Africa 154 Benin 135 Lesotho 96 Zimbabwe 7
1 Congo DR 252 Senegal 203 Sudan 144 South Sudan 95 Mauritania 86 Togo 7
1 Egypt 222 Burkina Faso 193 Guinea-Bissau 154 Sierra Leone 115 Ethiopia 86 Djibouti 5
1 Japan 242 Australia 153 Saudi Arabia 134 China PR 125 Bahrain 106 Indonesia 6
1 Korea Rep. 262 Oman 153 Iraq 154 Jordan 115 Palestine 106 Kuwait 4
1 Iran 252 Uzbekistan 183 UAE 154 Qatar 135 Kyrgyz Republic 66 Korea DPR 6
Qualifying Rounds
1 El Salvador 112 Costa Rica 103 Nicaragua 74 St Kitts & Nevis 4
1 Jamaica 132 Honduras 103 Cuba 64 Haiti 6
1 Curaçao 152 Panama 123 Guatemala 64 Suriname 3
1 Qatar 102 UAE 43 China PR 3
1 Jordan 72 Saudi Arabia 63 Oman 4
UEFA Playoffs
Sweden def.
Scotland
Poland def.
Sweden
Austria def.
Norway
Austria def.
Switzerland
Slovenia def.
Denmark
Slovenia def.
Greece
Kazakhstan def.
Albania
Romania def.
Kazakhstan
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Burkina Faso def.
Uganda
Senegal def.
Libya
Senegal def.
Burkina Faso
Saudi Arabia def.
UAE
OFC Final
New Zealand def.
New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
New Caledonia def.
Honduras
Venezuela def.
Saudi Arabia
Panama def.
New Caledonia
Venezuela def.
Senegal
Continental Competition Winners
Congo DR def.
Egypt