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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 21 November 2024)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
USA 1645
Mexico 1639
Canada 1519
France 1876
Argentina 1855
Spain 1851
England 1832
Brazil 1780
Portugal 1774
Netherlands 1757
Belgium 1745
Italy 1734
Pot 2 & ranking points
Colombia 1728
Uruguay 1720
Croatia 1708
Germany 1702
Japan 1661
Morocco 1652
Iran 1632
Austria 1613
Korea Rep. 1608
Ukraine 1596
Wales 1570
Ecuador 1551
Pot 3 & ranking points
Australia 1539
Poland 1537
Romania 1519
Tunisia 1517
Cameroon 1501
Mali 1501
Egypt 1500
Venezuela 1499
Qatar 1497
Slovakia 1495
Slovenia 1492
Nigeria 1490
Pot 4 & ranking points
Algeria 1488
Panama 1481
Congo DR 1479
Côte d'Ivoire 1475
Jamaica 1442
Uzbekistan 1426
Iraq 1414
Bolivia 1359
Jordan 1353
El Salvador 1329
Curaçao 1328
New Zealand 1285
Group 1
1Spain 7
2Iran 5
4Jamaica 3
3Romania 1
Avg. Ranking 1611
Group 2
1England 7
2Germany 7
3Venezuela 3
4El Salvador 0
Avg. Ranking 1590
Group 3
1Portugal 9
3Mali 4
2Ukraine 4
4Bolivia 0
Avg. Ranking 1557
Group 4
1Mexico 7
2Colombia 4
3Slovakia 3
4Congo DR 3
Avg. Ranking 1585
Group 5
1Canada 9
3Australia 4
2Wales 4
4New Zealand 0
Avg. Ranking 1478
Group 6
2Croatia 7
1USA 5
3Nigeria 3
4Iraq 1
Avg. Ranking 1565
Group 7
3Poland 6
4Algeria 4
2Uruguay 4
1France 3
Avg. Ranking 1655
Group 8
1Netherlands 7
2Korea Rep. 6
3Cameroon 4
4Curaçao 0
Avg. Ranking 1549
Group 9
2Ecuador 5
1Italy 5
4Côte d'Ivoire 5
3Qatar 0
Avg. Ranking 1564
Group 10
2Japan 7
1Argentina 7
4Panama 3
3Egypt 0
Avg. Ranking 1624
Group 11
1Brazil 9
2Morocco 4
3Slovenia 4
4Jordan 0
Avg. Ranking 1569
Group 12
1Belgium 7
4Uzbekistan 4
2Austria 3
3Tunisia 1
Avg. Ranking 1575
Germany def. Uzbekistan
Colombia def. Japan
Canada def. USA
Poland def. Korea Rep.
Slovenia def. Iran
Mali def. Ecuador
Wales def. Croatia
Algeria def. Netherlands
Italy def. Côte d'Ivoire
Argentina def. Australia
Brazil def. Uruguay
Belgium def. Cameroon
Mexico def. Morocco
Ukraine def. Portugal
England def. Nigeria
Spain def. Jamaica
Germany def. Colombia
Poland def. Canada
Mali def. Slovenia
Algeria def. Wales
Italy def. Argentina
Belgium def. Brazil
Mexico def. Ukraine
Spain def. England
Poland def. Germany
Mali def. Algeria
Italy def. Belgium
Mexico def. Spain
Poland def. Mali
Italy def. Mexico
Poland def. Italy
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 21 November 2024

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. UEFA playoffs have not been announced yet, it is assumed there will be four playoffs with byes going to the top four second placed teams, though it is possible there will be a Nations League qualifier and three groups of four teams for three spots.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Italy 15
2 Sweden 12
3 Israel 9
4 Cyprus 0
1 Netherlands 15
2 Romania 15
3 Estonia 3
4 Montenegro 3
1 Croatia 15
2 Norway 13
3 Georgia 5
4 Azerbaijan 1
1 Wales 16
2 Austria 11
3 Rep. of Ireland 4
4 Latvia 3
1 France 18
2 Albania 9
3 Serbia 7
4 Faroe Islands 1
1 Ukraine 15
2 Northern Ireland 10
3 Denmark 10
4 Belarus 0
1 Slovakia 17
2 Switzerland 16
3 Kosovo 11
4 Finland 9
5 Gibraltar 4
1 Belgium 21
2 Slovenia 14
3 Bulgaria 11
4 Hungary 11
5 Andorra 0
1 Spain 20
2 Poland 18
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 7
4 Lithuania 6
5 Malta 3
1 Germany 19
2 Luxembourg 13
3 Scotland 13
4 Türkiye 12
5 Liechtenstein 0
1 Portugal 22
2 Greece 16
3 North Macedonia 12
4 Armenia 7
5 Moldova 1
1 England 24
2 Kazakhstan 15
3 Iceland 13
4 Czechia 7
5 San Marino 0
1 New Zealand 0
2 Papua New Guinea 0
3 Vanuatu 0
4 Samoa 0
5 Tonga 0
6 Solomon Islands 0
7 New Caledonia 0
8 Tahiti 0
9 Fiji 0
10 American Samoa 0
1 Uruguay 35
2 Argentina 35
3 Colombia 33
4 Brazil 30
5 Ecuador 29
6 Bolivia 23
7 Venezuela 18
8 Paraguay 17
9 Peru 14
10 Chile 13
1 El Salvador 10
2 Suriname 7
3 Puerto Rico 6
4 St Vincent & the Grenadines 4
5 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 12
2 Guatemala 9
3 Dominica 4
4 Dominican Republic 4
5 British Virgin Isl. 0
1 Nicaragua 12
2 Panama 9
3 Montserrat 4
4 Guyana 4
5 Belize 0
1 Curaçao 10
2 Haiti 10
3 Barbados 6
4 St Lucia 1
5 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 St Kitts & Nevis 7
3 Trinidad & Tobago 5
4 Grenada 4
5 Bahamas 0
1 Honduras 12
2 Cuba 9
3 Cayman Islands 6
4 Antigua & Barbuda 1
5 Bermuda 1
1 Mali 23
2 Ghana 18
3 Madagascar 16
4 Central African Republic 14
5 Comoros 10
6 Chad 6
1 Tunisia 28
2 Liberia 16
3 Malawi 16
4 Namibia 13
5 Equatorial Guinea 12
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 1
1 Algeria 25
2 Uganda 22
3 Guinea 16
4 Mozambique 15
5 Botswana 7
6 Somalia 3
1 Côte d'Ivoire 25
2 Burundi 17
3 Kenya 17
4 Gabon 16
5 Gambia 7
6 Seychelles 4
1 Morocco 17
2 Congo 13
3 Zambia 13
4 Tanzania 9
5 Niger 6
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 26
2 Cabo Verde 19
3 Libya 19
4 Angola 15
5 Mauritius 5
6 Eswatini 1
1 Nigeria 19
2 Rwanda 15
3 South Africa 15
4 Benin 13
5 Lesotho 9
6 Zimbabwe 7
1 Congo DR 25
2 Senegal 20
3 Sudan 14
4 South Sudan 9
5 Mauritania 8
6 Togo 7
1 Egypt 22
2 Burkina Faso 19
3 Guinea-Bissau 15
4 Sierra Leone 11
5 Ethiopia 8
6 Djibouti 5
1 Japan 24
2 Australia 15
3 Saudi Arabia 13
4 China PR 12
5 Bahrain 10
6 Indonesia 6
1 Korea Rep. 26
2 Oman 15
3 Iraq 15
4 Jordan 11
5 Palestine 10
6 Kuwait 4
1 Iran 25
2 Uzbekistan 18
3 UAE 15
4 Qatar 13
5 Kyrgyz Republic 6
6 Korea DPR 6
Qualifying Rounds
1 El Salvador 11
2 Costa Rica 10
3 Nicaragua 7
4 St Kitts & Nevis 4
1 Jamaica 13
2 Honduras 10
3 Cuba 6
4 Haiti 6
1 Curaçao 15
2 Panama 12
3 Guatemala 6
4 Suriname 3
1 Qatar 10
2 UAE 4
3 China PR 3
1 Jordan 7
2 Saudi Arabia 6
3 Oman 4
UEFA Playoffs
Sweden def. Scotland
Poland def. Sweden
Austria def. Norway
Austria def. Switzerland
Slovenia def. Denmark
Slovenia def. Greece
Kazakhstan def. Albania
Romania def. Kazakhstan
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Burkina Faso def. Uganda
Senegal def. Libya
Senegal def. Burkina Faso
Saudi Arabia def. UAE
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
New Caledonia def. Honduras
Venezuela def. Saudi Arabia
Panama def. New Caledonia
Venezuela def. Senegal
Continental Competition Winners
Congo DR def. Egypt