2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

USA 1636

Mexico 1631

Canada 1520

France 1898

Spain 1865

Argentina 1862

England 1804

Brazil 1767

Portugal 1764

Netherlands 1760

Italy 1731

Belgium 1729
Pot 2 & ranking points

Uruguay 1728

Colombia 1716

Germany 1701

Morocco 1691

Senegal 1670

Iran 1665

Croatia 1664

Japan 1658

Switzerland 1655

Denmark 1640

Ukraine 1597

Korea Rep. 1574
Pot 3 & ranking points

Poland 1561

Sweden 1543

Ecuador 1536

Egypt 1529

Australia 1508

Costa Rica 1500

Czechia 1494

Cameroon 1489

Côte d'Ivoire 1483

Algeria 1479

Congo DR 1469

Paraguay 1469
Pot 4 & ranking points

Tunisia 1462

Iraq 1453

South Africa 1450

Jamaica 1434

Saudi Arabia 1434

Uzbekistan 1432

UAE 1397

Jordan 1369

Honduras 1354

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1339

Ghana 1339

New Zealand 1288

Poland def.

Cameroon

Tunisia def.

Costa Rica

Colombia def.

Belgium

France def.

Egypt

Brazil def.

Germany

Ukraine def.

Spain

Côte d'Ivoire def.

USA

Italy def.

Switzerland

Argentina def.

Japan

Croatia def.

Ecuador

Senegal def.

Iran

Mexico def.

Canada

Portugal def.

Ghana

Uruguay def.

Jamaica

Netherlands def.

Jordan

Denmark def.

England

Tunisia def.

Poland

France def.

Colombia

Ukraine def.

Brazil

Côte d'Ivoire def.

Italy

Argentina def.

Croatia

Mexico def.

Senegal

Portugal def.

Uruguay

Denmark def.

Netherlands

France def.

Tunisia

Ukraine def.

Côte d'Ivoire

Argentina def.

Mexico

Portugal def.

Denmark

France def.

Ukraine

Argentina def.

Portugal

France def.

Argentina
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025
Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.
European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.
Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Czechia 192 Croatia 183 Montenegro 134 Gibraltar 75 Faroe Islands 1
1 England 192 Albania 163 Serbia 154 Latvia 65 Andorra 3
1 Germany 152 Northern Ireland 103 Slovakia 64 Luxembourg 4
1 Italy 212 Israel 163 Norway 154 Moldova 45 Estonia 3
1 Romania 162 Bosnia & Herzegovina 163 Austria 154 Cyprus 75 San Marino 3
1 Netherlands 222 Poland 173 Finland 114 Lithuania 55 Malta 1
1 Portugal 152 Rep. of Ireland 103 Hungary 104 Armenia 0
1 Spain 182 Türkiye 83 Georgia 44 Bulgaria 3
1 France 182 Ukraine 103 Iceland 44 Azerbaijan 3
1 Denmark 182 Scotland 73 Belarus 54 Greece 4
1 Switzerland 142 Sweden 93 Slovenia 74 Kosovo 3
1 Belgium 172 North Macedonia 153 Wales 154 Kazakhstan 85 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 382 Uruguay 363 Brazil 294 Ecuador 275 Paraguay 276 Colombia 277 Bolivia 218 Venezuela 189 Peru 1310 Chile 10
1 Suriname 102 El Salvador 83 Puerto Rico 54 St Vincent & the Grenadines 45 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 102 Guatemala 83 Dominican Republic 54 Dominica 25 British Virgin Isl. 1
1 Panama 102 Guyana 93 Nicaragua 74 Montserrat 15 Belize 1
1 Curaçao 102 Haiti 103 Barbados 64 St Lucia 15 Aruba 1
1 Costa Rica 122 Trinidad & Tobago 73 St Kitts & Nevis 64 Grenada 25 Bahamas 1
1 Honduras 122 Bermuda 73 Cuba 64 Cayman Islands 35 Antigua & Barbuda 1
1 Ghana 252 Mali 193 Comoros 184 Madagascar 145 Central African Republic 96 Chad 0
1 Tunisia 262 Namibia 193 Liberia 144 Equatorial Guinea 115 Malawi 116 São Tomé & Príncipe 3
1 Algeria 232 Mozambique 183 Uganda 154 Guinea 145 Botswana 136 Somalia 4
1 Côte d'Ivoire 282 Gabon 243 Burundi 144 Kenya 105 Gambia 96 Seychelles 0
1 Morocco 182 Niger 103 Tanzania 84 Zambia 65 Congo 46 Eritrea 0
1 Cameroon 242 Cabo Verde 203 Libya 154 Mauritius 85 Angola 86 Eswatini 6
1 South Africa 212 Benin 153 Nigeria 144 Rwanda 135 Zimbabwe 96 Lesotho 6
1 Congo DR 232 Senegal 223 Sudan 134 Mauritania 115 South Sudan 66 Togo 5
1 Egypt 262 Burkina Faso 213 Guinea-Bissau 154 Sierra Leone 125 Ethiopia 66 Djibouti 2
1 Japan 262 Saudi Arabia 163 Australia 134 Indonesia 105 China PR 86 Bahrain 7
1 Korea Rep. 192 Iraq 183 Jordan 144 Oman 125 Palestine 106 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 262 Uzbekistan 213 UAE 144 Qatar 115 Kyrgyz Republic 106 Korea DPR 2
Qualifying Rounds
1 Costa Rica 162 Suriname 83 El Salvador 64 Trinidad & Tobago 2
1 Jamaica 162 Haiti 83 Curaçao 84 Guyana 1
1 Honduras 112 Guatemala 103 Panama 104 Bermuda 2
1 UAE 72 Qatar 63 Oman 4
1 Australia 92 Jordan 53 Indonesia 2
UEFA Playoffs

Croatia def.

San Marino

Romania def.

Scotland

Croatia def.

Romania

Ukraine def.

Moldova

Hungary def.

Norway

Ukraine def.

Hungary

Türkiye def.

Israel

Poland def.

North Macedonia

Poland def.

Türkiye

Wales def.

Northern Ireland

Sweden def.

Albania

Sweden def.

Wales
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Gabon def.

Cabo Verde

Senegal def.

Burkina Faso

Senegal def.

Gabon

Jordan def.

Qatar
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs

New Caledonia def.

Guatemala

Bolivia def.

Haiti

Jordan def.

New Caledonia

Senegal def.

Bolivia