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Current Qualification Odds (ELO Sim, 26 March 2025)
2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points
Mexico 1645
USA 1640
Canada 1524
Argentina 1888
France 1878
Spain 1822
England 1815
Portugal 1793
Brazil 1781
Netherlands 1771
Belgium 1759
Germany 1731
Pot 2 & ranking points
Croatia 1724
Italy 1715
Colombia 1689
Senegal 1682
Morocco 1682
Uruguay 1671
Iran 1661
Japan 1652
Denmark 1619
Austria 1608
Korea Rep. 1597
Sweden 1561
Pot 3 & ranking points
Ecuador 1560
Panama 1553
Slovakia 1538
Scotland 1535
Egypt 1535
Australia 1521
Norway 1510
Costa Rica 1492
Iraq 1474
Algeria 1472
Tunisia 1457
Jamaica 1452
Pot 4 & ranking points
Paraguay 1436
Congo DR 1432
Uzbekistan 1431
Saudi Arabia 1415
South Africa 1403
Georgia 1391
Cabo Verde 1369
Gabon 1350
Oman 1349
Ghana 1336
El Salvador 1312
New Zealand 1246
Group 1
1England 9
2Colombia 4
3Costa Rica 4
4Saudi Arabia 0
Avg. Ranking 1603
Group 2
1Spain 7
2Korea Rep. 4
3Norway 3
4Congo DR 2
Avg. Ranking 1590
Group 3
4South Africa 6
2Iran 4
3Ecuador 4
1USA 3
Avg. Ranking 1566
Group 4
4Ghana 6
3Australia 6
1Argentina 4
2Denmark 1
Avg. Ranking 1591
Group 5
2Senegal 7
4Georgia 4
3Iraq 3
1Canada 2
Avg. Ranking 1518
Group 6
1France 9
4New Zealand 4
2Morocco 3
3Jamaica 1
Avg. Ranking 1565
Group 7
2Italy 7
1Mexico 6
3Slovakia 4
4Paraguay 0
Avg. Ranking 1584
Group 8
1Germany 7
2Japan 4
3Tunisia 3
4El Salvador 3
Avg. Ranking 1538
Group 9
1Portugal 7
2Austria 6
3Egypt 4
4Oman 0
Avg. Ranking 1571
Group 10
1Netherlands 9
2Croatia 4
4Uzbekistan 3
3Algeria 1
Avg. Ranking 1600
Group 11
1Belgium 9
2Uruguay 4
3Scotland 3
4Cabo Verde 1
Avg. Ranking 1584
Group 12
1Brazil 6
3Panama 6
2Sweden 6
4Gabon 0
Avg. Ranking 1561
Sweden def. Korea Rep.
Croatia def. Australia
Senegal def. New Zealand
Italy def. Japan
Uruguay def. Colombia
Iran def. Austria
France def. Georgia
Germany def. Mexico
Portugal def. Brazil
Argentina def. Netherlands
Belgium def. Egypt
Ecuador def. Panama
Ghana def. Slovakia
South Africa def. Costa Rica
Spain def. Scotland
England def. Uzbekistan
Croatia def. Sweden
Senegal def. Italy
Iran def. Uruguay
France def. Germany
Portugal def. Argentina
Belgium def. Ecuador
Ghana def. South Africa
Spain def. England
Senegal def. Croatia
France def. Iran
Belgium def. Portugal
Spain def. Ghana
France def. Senegal
Spain def. Belgium
France def. Spain
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025

Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.

Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.

The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.

European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.

Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 22
2 Czechia 18
3 Montenegro 11
4 Gibraltar 5
5 Faroe Islands 1
1 England 21
2 Serbia 16
3 Albania 13
4 Andorra 6
5 Latvia 3
1 Slovakia 15
2 Germany 15
3 Northern Ireland 4
4 Luxembourg 1
1 Italy 19
2 Norway 16
3 Israel 11
4 Estonia 10
5 Moldova 1
1 Austria 21
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 18
3 Romania 15
4 Cyprus 6
5 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 24
2 Poland 15
3 Finland 13
4 Lithuania 5
5 Malta 1
1 Portugal 18
2 Hungary 12
3 Rep. of Ireland 4
4 Armenia 1
1 Georgia 12
2 Spain 11
3 Bulgaria 7
4 Türkiye 4
1 France 16
2 Ukraine 10
3 Azerbaijan 4
4 Iceland 3
1 Scotland 16
2 Denmark 13
3 Greece 6
4 Belarus 0
1 Sweden 13
2 Slovenia 12
3 Switzerland 6
4 Kosovo 4
1 Belgium 22
2 Wales 15
3 Kazakhstan 10
4 North Macedonia 9
5 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 40
2 Brazil 31
3 Uruguay 30
4 Ecuador 30
5 Colombia 27
6 Paraguay 22
7 Venezuela 20
8 Chile 16
9 Bolivia 15
10 Peru 14
1 El Salvador 10
2 Puerto Rico 7
3 Suriname 6
4 St Vincent & the Grenadines 6
5 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 12
2 Guatemala 9
3 Dominica 6
4 Dominican Republic 3
5 British Virgin Isl. 0
1 Panama 12
2 Nicaragua 9
3 Guyana 4
4 Montserrat 2
5 Belize 1
1 Haiti 12
2 St Lucia 7
3 Curaçao 6
4 Aruba 2
5 Barbados 1
1 Costa Rica 12
2 St Kitts & Nevis 7
3 Trinidad & Tobago 5
4 Bahamas 3
5 Grenada 1
1 Honduras 12
2 Bermuda 5
3 Cuba 5
4 Cayman Islands 3
5 Antigua & Barbuda 2
1 Ghana 24
2 Mali 21
3 Madagascar 16
4 Comoros 12
5 Central African Republic 11
6 Chad 3
1 Tunisia 25
2 Namibia 19
3 Liberia 16
4 Equatorial Guinea 14
5 Malawi 9
6 São Tomé & Príncipe 2
1 Algeria 25
2 Guinea 17
3 Uganda 16
4 Mozambique 13
5 Botswana 12
6 Somalia 4
1 Gabon 27
2 Côte d'Ivoire 25
3 Burundi 16
4 Kenya 9
5 Gambia 7
6 Seychelles 3
1 Morocco 18
2 Tanzania 13
3 Zambia 7
4 Niger 6
5 Congo 3
6 Eritrea 0
1 Cabo Verde 25
2 Cameroon 18
3 Angola 17
4 Libya 11
5 Eswatini 6
6 Mauritius 5
1 Lesotho 16
2 Nigeria 16
3 South Africa 16
4 Zimbabwe 13
5 Rwanda 11
6 Benin 9
1 Congo DR 25
2 Senegal 21
3 Sudan 15
4 Togo 10
5 Mauritania 8
6 South Sudan 3
1 Egypt 28
2 Burkina Faso 20
3 Sierra Leone 12
4 Guinea-Bissau 10
5 Ethiopia 8
6 Djibouti 4
1 Japan 24
2 Australia 14
3 Saudi Arabia 13
4 China PR 10
5 Bahrain 10
6 Indonesia 9
1 Korea Rep. 22
2 Oman 16
3 Iraq 15
4 Jordan 13
5 Palestine 9
6 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 26
2 Uzbekistan 23
3 UAE 13
4 Qatar 10
5 Kyrgyz Republic 10
6 Korea DPR 3
Qualifying Rounds
1 Jamaica 16
2 Honduras 9
3 St Lucia 5
4 St Kitts & Nevis 4
1 Panama 18
2 El Salvador 8
3 Nicaragua 7
4 Puerto Rico 1
1 Costa Rica 18
2 Guatemala 7
3 Haiti 5
4 Cuba 4
1 Saudi Arabia 7
2 UAE 5
3 Qatar 4
1 Iraq 10
2 Jordan 3
3 China PR 2
UEFA Playoffs
Spain def. Moldova
Czechia def. Poland
Spain def. Czechia
Germany def. Bosnia & Herzegovina
Serbia def. Romania
Germany def. Serbia
Denmark def. Northern Ireland
Wales def. Slovenia
Denmark def. Wales
Ukraine def. North Macedonia
Norway def. Hungary
Norway def. Ukraine
CAF/AFC Playoffs
Burkina Faso def. Côte d'Ivoire
Senegal def. Mali
Senegal def. Burkina Faso
Jordan def. UAE
OFC Final
New Zealand def. New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs
El Salvador def. New Caledonia
Honduras def. Jordan
El Salvador def. Venezuela
Senegal def. Honduras