2026 World Cup Qualifying Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Mexico 1645

USA 1640

Canada 1524

Argentina 1888

France 1878

Spain 1822

England 1815

Portugal 1793

Brazil 1781

Netherlands 1771

Belgium 1759

Germany 1731
Pot 2 & ranking points

Croatia 1724

Italy 1715

Colombia 1689

Senegal 1682

Morocco 1682

Uruguay 1671

Iran 1661

Japan 1652

Denmark 1619

Austria 1608

Korea Rep. 1597

Sweden 1561
Pot 3 & ranking points

Ecuador 1560

Panama 1553

Slovakia 1538

Scotland 1535

Egypt 1535

Australia 1521

Norway 1510

Costa Rica 1492

Iraq 1474

Algeria 1472

Tunisia 1457

Jamaica 1452
Pot 4 & ranking points

Paraguay 1436

Congo DR 1432

Uzbekistan 1431

Saudi Arabia 1415

South Africa 1403

Georgia 1391

Cabo Verde 1369

Gabon 1350

Oman 1349

Ghana 1336

El Salvador 1312

New Zealand 1246

Sweden def.

Korea Rep.

Croatia def.

Australia

Senegal def.

New Zealand

Italy def.

Japan

Uruguay def.

Colombia

Iran def.

Austria

France def.

Georgia

Germany def.

Mexico

Portugal def.

Brazil

Argentina def.

Netherlands

Belgium def.

Egypt

Ecuador def.

Panama

Ghana def.

Slovakia

South Africa def.

Costa Rica

Spain def.

Scotland

England def.

Uzbekistan

Croatia def.

Sweden

Senegal def.

Italy

Iran def.

Uruguay

France def.

Germany

Portugal def.

Argentina

Belgium def.

Ecuador

Ghana def.

South Africa

Spain def.

England

Senegal def.

Croatia

France def.

Iran

Belgium def.

Portugal

Spain def.

Ghana

France def.

Senegal

Spain def.

Belgium

France def.

Spain
This simulates the 2026 48-team World Cup, from the current point of qualifying. Last update: 26 March 2025
Friendlies and interim games are generally not simulated. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is somehow impossible, in which case it will ignore continental restrictions. This can lead to some odd results, because the simulator doesn't know anything else other than team strength.
Qualifying rounds are based on real life qualifying as announced. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent when necessary and is simulated correctly, but not shown.
The intercontinental playoff works correctly with the teams with byes seeded by ranking. African qualification is not decided because of Eritrea and Congo being suspended in the same group, so it just takes the top two teams without adjusting.
European qualifying includes teams finishing outside the first or second place in the table ranked by their Nations league performance. If you don't understand why a team is in the play-offs, that is why.
Sometimes a team will advance with the same points that looks lower in the standings - this is fine, just a display issue I'm not motivated to fix.
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Qualifying Rounds
1 Croatia 222 Czechia 183 Montenegro 114 Gibraltar 55 Faroe Islands 1
1 England 212 Serbia 163 Albania 134 Andorra 65 Latvia 3
1 Slovakia 152 Germany 153 Northern Ireland 44 Luxembourg 1
1 Italy 192 Norway 163 Israel 114 Estonia 105 Moldova 1
1 Austria 212 Bosnia & Herzegovina 183 Romania 154 Cyprus 65 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 242 Poland 153 Finland 134 Lithuania 55 Malta 1
1 Portugal 182 Hungary 123 Rep. of Ireland 44 Armenia 1
1 Georgia 122 Spain 113 Bulgaria 74 Türkiye 4
1 France 162 Ukraine 103 Azerbaijan 44 Iceland 3
1 Scotland 162 Denmark 133 Greece 64 Belarus 0
1 Sweden 132 Slovenia 123 Switzerland 64 Kosovo 4
1 Belgium 222 Wales 153 Kazakhstan 104 North Macedonia 95 Liechtenstein 0
1 Argentina 402 Brazil 313 Uruguay 304 Ecuador 305 Colombia 276 Paraguay 227 Venezuela 208 Chile 169 Bolivia 1510 Peru 14
1 El Salvador 102 Puerto Rico 73 Suriname 64 St Vincent & the Grenadines 65 Anguilla 0
1 Jamaica 122 Guatemala 93 Dominica 64 Dominican Republic 35 British Virgin Isl. 0
1 Panama 122 Nicaragua 93 Guyana 44 Montserrat 25 Belize 1
1 Haiti 122 St Lucia 73 Curaçao 64 Aruba 25 Barbados 1
1 Costa Rica 122 St Kitts & Nevis 73 Trinidad & Tobago 54 Bahamas 35 Grenada 1
1 Honduras 122 Bermuda 53 Cuba 54 Cayman Islands 35 Antigua & Barbuda 2
1 Ghana 242 Mali 213 Madagascar 164 Comoros 125 Central African Republic 116 Chad 3
1 Tunisia 252 Namibia 193 Liberia 164 Equatorial Guinea 145 Malawi 96 São Tomé & Príncipe 2
1 Algeria 252 Guinea 173 Uganda 164 Mozambique 135 Botswana 126 Somalia 4
1 Gabon 272 Côte d'Ivoire 253 Burundi 164 Kenya 95 Gambia 76 Seychelles 3
1 Morocco 182 Tanzania 133 Zambia 74 Niger 65 Congo 36 Eritrea 0
1 Cabo Verde 252 Cameroon 183 Angola 174 Libya 115 Eswatini 66 Mauritius 5
1 Lesotho 162 Nigeria 163 South Africa 164 Zimbabwe 135 Rwanda 116 Benin 9
1 Congo DR 252 Senegal 213 Sudan 154 Togo 105 Mauritania 86 South Sudan 3
1 Egypt 282 Burkina Faso 203 Sierra Leone 124 Guinea-Bissau 105 Ethiopia 86 Djibouti 4
1 Japan 242 Australia 143 Saudi Arabia 134 China PR 105 Bahrain 106 Indonesia 9
1 Korea Rep. 222 Oman 163 Iraq 154 Jordan 135 Palestine 96 Kuwait 5
1 Iran 262 Uzbekistan 233 UAE 134 Qatar 105 Kyrgyz Republic 106 Korea DPR 3
Qualifying Rounds
1 Jamaica 162 Honduras 93 St Lucia 54 St Kitts & Nevis 4
1 Panama 182 El Salvador 83 Nicaragua 74 Puerto Rico 1
1 Costa Rica 182 Guatemala 73 Haiti 54 Cuba 4
1 Saudi Arabia 72 UAE 53 Qatar 4
1 Iraq 102 Jordan 33 China PR 2
UEFA Playoffs

Spain def.

Moldova

Czechia def.

Poland

Spain def.

Czechia

Germany def.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Serbia def.

Romania

Germany def.

Serbia

Denmark def.

Northern Ireland

Wales def.

Slovenia

Denmark def.

Wales

Ukraine def.

North Macedonia

Norway def.

Hungary

Norway def.

Ukraine
CAF/AFC Playoffs

Burkina Faso def.

Côte d'Ivoire

Senegal def.

Mali

Senegal def.

Burkina Faso

Jordan def.

UAE
OFC Final

New Zealand def.

New Caledonia
Intercontinental Playoffs

El Salvador def.

New Caledonia

Honduras def.

Jordan

El Salvador def.

Venezuela

Senegal def.

Honduras